Backtesting
Hypothesis: hold HKD 20,000 in each of the 49 Fidelity funds (equal-weight, buy-and-hold, no fees). Simulation period: 2023-01-02 to 2025-11-25 (3 years). Benchmark: MSCI World (proxy).
Prices simulated via Geometric Brownian Motion using historical annualised return and volatility from yfinance data. Risk-free rate: 4.5%. USD/HKD peg: 7.8. Random seed: 42.
Net Profit / Loss
+HKD 268,760
+27.42% total
Volatility (ann.)
2.37%
vs 15.02% benchmark
Max Drawdown
-1.51%
vs -20.21% benchmark
Sharpe Ratio
1.523
vs 0.243 benchmark
Positive Alpha Generated
The equal-weight Fidelity portfolio delivers 8.41% annualised return vs 7.16% for the benchmark — an alpha of +1.25%.
+1.25%
Alpha (ann.)
Portfolio Value vs Benchmark
Total portfolio (HKD) over the 3-year simulation. Initial: HKD 980,000. Shaded area: 90% confidence interval (Monte Carlo).
Performance Summary
| Metric | Portfolio | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Value | HKD 980,000 | HKD 980,000 |
| Final Value | HKD 1,248,760 | HKD 1,205,957 |
| Net P&L | +HKD 268,760 | +HKD 225,957 |
| Total Return | +27.42% | +23.06% |
| Annualised Return | +8.41% | +7.16% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 2.37% | 15.02% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -1.51% | -20.21% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.523 | 0.243 |
Per-Fund Breakdown
Each fund starts at HKD 20,000. Sorted by Sharpe ratio (highest first).
| Fund | Final (HKD) | Net P&L | Total Ret. | Ann. Ret. | Volatility | Max DD | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Value Fund | 43,462 | +23,462 | +117.3% | +29.5% | 19.2% | -17.2% | 1.179 |
| Iberia Fund | 31,276 | +11,276 | +56.4% | +16.1% | 12.6% | -13.0% | 0.903 |
| Japan Equity ESG Fund | 32,779 | +12,779 | +63.9% | +17.9% | 19.0% | -21.0% | 0.731 |
| Euro 50 Index Fund | 29,661 | +9,661 | +48.3% | +14.0% | 17.0% | -19.0% | 0.587 |
| European Dividend Fund | 27,342 | +7,342 | +36.7% | +11.0% | 11.9% | -12.9% | 0.567 |
| Global Dividend Fund | 27,440 | +7,440 | +37.2% | +11.1% | 12.4% | -14.3% | 0.566 |
| Global Technology Fund | 29,926 | +9,926 | +49.6% | +14.4% | 20.1% | -22.4% | 0.550 |
| Global Dividend Plus Fund | 26,612 | +6,612 | +33.1% | +10.0% | 12.9% | -15.5% | 0.472 |
| World Fund | 27,424 | +7,424 | +37.1% | +11.1% | 15.9% | -18.2% | 0.451 |
| First All Country World Fund | 26,702 | +6,702 | +33.5% | +10.1% | 15.6% | -19.1% | 0.414 |
| Europe Equity ESG Fund | 25,796 | +5,796 | +29.0% | +8.8% | 14.2% | -17.9% | 0.361 |
| Technology Opportunities Fund | 27,202 | +7,202 | +36.0% | +10.8% | 34.0% | -42.2% | 0.342 |
| Future Connectivity Fund | 25,720 | +5,720 | +28.6% | +8.8% | 19.7% | -25.4% | 0.300 |
| India Focus Fund | 25,732 | +5,732 | +28.7% | +8.8% | 22.6% | -29.5% | 0.290 |
| Global Industrials Fund | 25,453 | +5,453 | +27.3% | +8.4% | 22.2% | -28.4% | 0.273 |
| Australian Diversified Equity Fund | 25,192 | +5,192 | +26.0% | +8.0% | 18.9% | -25.4% | 0.269 |
| Target™ 2030 Fund | 25,222 | +5,222 | +26.1% | +8.0% | 19.9% | -28.1% | 0.266 |
| Asia Pacific Dividend Fund | 24,827 | +4,827 | +24.1% | +7.5% | 13.8% | -17.6% | 0.265 |
| Pacific Fund | 25,031 | +5,031 | +25.1% | +7.8% | 17.3% | -21.6% | 0.265 |
| Global Thematic Opportunities Fund | 24,582 | +4,582 | +22.9% | +7.1% | 16.0% | -21.8% | 0.236 |
| Global Focus Fund | 24,363 | +4,363 | +21.8% | +6.8% | 16.1% | -21.9% | 0.216 |
| Global Short Duration Income Fund | 23,105 | +3,105 | +15.5% | +4.9% | 2.1% | -1.6% | 0.216 |
| European Larger Companies Fund | 24,225 | +4,225 | +21.1% | +6.6% | 14.0% | -19.9% | 0.211 |
| Asian Smaller Companies Fund | 24,084 | +4,084 | +20.4% | +6.4% | 20.9% | -31.4% | 0.191 |
| China Focus Fund | 24,003 | +4,003 | +20.0% | +6.3% | 24.1% | -33.6% | 0.188 |
| America Fund | 23,874 | +3,874 | +19.4% | +6.1% | 14.0% | -20.6% | 0.179 |
| Nordic Fund | 22,754 | +2,754 | +13.8% | +4.4% | 21.2% | -30.6% | 0.100 |
| Global Multi Asset Dynamic Fund | 23,086 | +3,086 | +15.4% | +4.9% | 12.0% | -17.8% | 0.091 |
| UK Special Situations Fund | 22,366 | +2,366 | +11.8% | +3.8% | 14.7% | -22.3% | 0.026 |
| Asia Pacific Opportunities Fund | 22,158 | +2,158 | +10.8% | +3.5% | 17.0% | -26.3% | 0.026 |
| American Growth Fund | 22,216 | +2,216 | +11.1% | +3.6% | 14.4% | -21.4% | 0.015 |
| ASEAN Fund | 22,068 | +2,068 | +10.3% | +3.3% | 12.1% | -17.9% | -0.028 |
| US High Yield Fund | 21,932 | +1,932 | +9.7% | +3.1% | 10.2% | -16.9% | -0.079 |
| Global Consumer Brands Fund | 20,706 | +706 | +3.5% | +1.2% | 18.8% | -28.5% | -0.082 |
| Emerging Asia Fund | 19,586 | -414 | -2.1% | -0.7% | 18.5% | -29.8% | -0.173 |
| Global Income Fund | 22,258 | +2,258 | +11.3% | +3.6% | 3.9% | -4.3% | -0.201 |
| Target™ 2025 Fund | 20,446 | +446 | +2.2% | +0.7% | 12.3% | -21.0% | -0.235 |
| Global Healthcare Fund | 19,341 | -659 | -3.3% | -1.1% | 14.3% | -25.4% | -0.319 |
| Emerging Market Debt Fund | 20,334 | +334 | +1.7% | +0.6% | 10.2% | -17.4% | -0.321 |
| Asian High Yield Fund | 19,590 | -410 | -2.0% | -0.7% | 12.3% | -20.4% | -0.350 |
| Asia Pacific Strategic Income Fund | 21,289 | +1,289 | +6.4% | +2.1% | 5.2% | -7.7% | -0.415 |
| Global Inflation-linked Bond Fund | 20,209 | +209 | +1.1% | +0.3% | 7.3% | -12.3% | -0.504 |
| Asian Bond Fund | 20,634 | +634 | +3.2% | +1.1% | 5.4% | -8.6% | -0.594 |
| Euro Bond Fund | 19,985 | -15 | -0.1% | -0.0% | 6.7% | -12.2% | -0.638 |
| Emerging Market Corporate Debt Fund | 20,960 | +960 | +4.8% | +1.6% | 4.2% | -6.6% | -0.648 |
| US Dollar Bond Fund | 19,564 | -436 | -2.2% | -0.7% | 6.2% | -11.0% | -0.777 |
| US Dollar Cash Fund | 22,546 | +2,546 | +12.7% | +4.1% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -0.814 |
| Global Bond Fund | 18,992 | -1,008 | -5.0% | -1.7% | 4.2% | -10.6% | -1.437 |
| Euro Cash Fund | 21,516 | +1,516 | +7.6% | +2.5% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -6.825 |
Methodology
Simulated via Monte Carlo (100 iterations) using Geometric Brownian Motion. Main portfolio path and metrics represent the MEDIAN (50th percentile) outcome. No fees assumed. Benchmark: MSCI World proxy (9 % return, 15 % std dev).
Generated on 2026-05-10. Data source: yfinance historical NAV data.