Backtesting

Vanguard ETFs Equal-Weight Portfolio — HKD 20,000 Each

This post evaluates an equal-weight portfolio of all 40 Vanguard ETFs tracked on this site, with HKD 20,000 allocated to each constituent for a total investment of HKD 820,000.

The goal is to understand the expected return and risk profile of a naive equal-weight Vanguard multi-asset portfolio — spanning US equities, international equities, fixed income, real estate, and target-date funds — without any optimisation or strategic tilting.


Portfolio Construction

Metric Value
Number of Vanguard ETFs/Funds 40
Investment per ETF HKD 20,000
Total Investment HKD 840,000 (40 × 20,000)
Weighting Equal weight (2.5% each)
Asset Classes Covered US equities, international equities, bonds, REITs, target-date funds, money market
Currency HKD (converted at ~7.8 USD/HKD)
Data Period 5 years (daily adjusted close, Jun 2021 – Jun 2026)
Risk-Free Rate 4.5%

Note: VJP (FTSE Japan ETF) is excluded — no price data available (possibly delisted). 40 tickers with valid data are included.


Portfolio Performance Summary

Metric Value
Annualised Expected Return 8.04%
Annualised Standard Deviation (Risk) 11.24%
Sharpe Ratio (rf=4.5%) 0.32

A return of ~8.0% with ~11.2% volatility places this portfolio in a moderate risk-return zone — below a pure equity portfolio (VOO: 14.9% return / 16.9% risk) but well above a pure bond portfolio (BND: 0.3% return / 6.0% risk). The equal-weight approach gives significant weight to lower-volatility fixed-income ETFs, which dampens overall portfolio volatility.


Individual Ticker Metrics

# Ticker Annualised Return Annualised Risk (Std Dev) Sharpe Ratio
1 VGT 23.37% 25.59% 0.74
2 VIS 16.12% 18.53% 0.63
3 VUG 15.72% 22.42% 0.50
4 VOO 14.90% 16.93% 0.61
5 VYMI 14.01% 14.88% 0.64
6 VTI 13.86% 17.52% 0.53
7 VTV 13.54% 13.89% 0.65
8 VYM 13.00% 13.93% 0.61
9 VFH 12.17% 19.25% 0.40
10 VT 12.23% 16.20% 0.48
11 VPL 12.12% 17.95% 0.42
12 VEA 11.57% 16.77% 0.42
13 VGK 10.92% 17.97% 0.36
14 VEU 10.44% 16.30% 0.36
15 VXUS 10.12% 16.28% 0.35
16 VB 9.97% 20.79% 0.26
17 VTWO 9.74% 22.57% 0.23
18 VO 9.66% 17.67% 0.29
19 VASGX 9.26% 12.90% 0.37
20 VDC 8.14% 13.21% 0.28
21 VSS 7.09% 16.63% 0.16
22 VTHRX 7.20% 10.46% 0.26
23 VHT 6.91% 15.10% 0.16
24 VSMGX 6.82% 10.14% 0.23
25 VWO 6.61% 17.59% 0.12
26 VTTVX 6.16% 9.16% 0.18
27 VIGI 5.75% 14.47% 0.09
28 VNQ 5.03% 18.88% 0.03
29 VSCGX 4.61% 7.59% 0.01
30 VWEHX 4.03% 4.92% -0.10
31 VTIP 3.37% 2.77% -0.41
32 VWOB 2.65% 9.19% -0.20
33 VCSH 2.49% 2.89% -0.70
34 VASIX 2.37% 5.72% -0.37
35 VGSH 1.93% 1.98% -1.30
36 BSV 1.78% 2.74% -0.99
37 BNDX 0.62% 4.89% -0.79
38 BND 0.33% 6.03% -0.69
39 VNQI 0.21% 15.56% -0.28
40 VMFXX 0.00% 0.00% 0.00

Tickers sorted by annualised return descending. Bond and money market funds cluster at the bottom with near-zero or negative Sharpe ratios (a function of the current 4.5% risk-free rate).


Asset Class Breakdown

Asset Class Tickers Typical Weight (Equal)
US Equity VOO, VTI, VTV, VUG, VO, VB, VTWO, VDC, VHT, VFH, VIS, VGT ~30%
International Equity VEA, VEU, VGK, VPL, VWO, VXUS, VSS, VYMI, VIGI, VYM ~25%
Fixed Income BND, BNDX, BSV, VCSH, VGSH, VTIP, VWOB, VWEHX ~20%
Multi-Asset / Target-Date VASGX, VASIX, VSCGX, VSMGX, VTHRX, VTTVX ~15%
Real Estate VNQ, VNQI ~5%
Money Market VMFXX ~2.5%
Other VTV, VYM, VYMI (Value/Dividend overlap) Included above

Note: Some tickers span multiple categories (e.g., VTV is value equity, VYM is dividend equity). The allocation above is approximate.


Key Insights

Strengths

  • Broad diversification: 40 positions across US equity, international equity, bonds, REITs, and multi-asset funds.
  • Moderate volatility: At 11.24% annualised risk, the portfolio sits between conservative and aggressive — suitable for a balanced investor.
  • Automatic rebalancing-friendly: Equal-weight means no complex optimisation; periodic rebalancing is straightforward.
  • Low-cost structure: All Vanguard ETFs have expense ratios under 0.15%, keeping drag minimal.

Weaknesses

  • Bond drag: Nearly 20% allocation to bonds (BND, BSV, VCSH, VGSH, etc.) with negative Sharpe ratios at current yields significantly drags portfolio return relative to a pure equity portfolio.
  • Naive equal-weight: No strategic tilting — sectors and asset classes are represented purely by how many distinct Vanguard products exist, not by conviction or expected return.
  • Currency risk: International equity exposure (~25% of portfolio) introduces non-HKD currency risk with no hedging.
  • Target-date overlap: LifeStrategy and target-date funds (VASGX, VTHRX, VTTVX, etc.) internally hold the same underlying ETFs, creating hidden overlap.

Comparison With Alternatives

Portfolio Expected Return Risk (Std Dev) Sharpe Ratio
Vanguard Equal-Weight (this post) 8.04% 11.24% 0.32
VOO (S&P 500 only) 14.90% 16.93% 0.61
VTI (Total US Stock) 13.86% 17.52% 0.53
VT (Total World Stock) 12.23% 16.20% 0.48
VSMGX (60/40 Balanced) 6.82% 10.14% 0.23
VASIX (Conservative) 2.37% 5.72% -0.37

The equal-weight Vanguard portfolio occupies a reasonable middle ground — higher return than a 60/40 balanced fund (VSMGX) but with only slightly more risk, thanks to the bond allocation. However, a simple VT (Total World) portfolio delivers 12.23% return with 16.20% risk — a significantly higher return-per-unit-of-risk than the naive equal-weight approach.


Methodology

  1. Data source: Yahoo Finance via yfinance (scripts/lib/fetcher.py).
  2. Data period: 5 years of daily adjusted close prices.
  3. Currency conversion: All USD prices converted to HKD at a fixed rate of 7.8.
  4. Portfolio weighting: Equal weight — each of the 40 Vanguard ETFs receives HKD 20,000.
  5. Return calculation: Annualised expected return = ((1 + mean daily return)^252 - 1).
  6. Risk calculation: Annualised standard deviation = daily std × √252.
  7. Sharpe ratio: (Annualised return − 4.5%) / Annualised risk.

Data fetched via yfinance. VJP excluded due to delisting/no data. Last updated: 2026-06-30.

VanguardETFEqual WeightPortfolioRisk-ReturnMulti-Asset