Evidence and analysis
This post evaluates an equal-weight portfolio of all 40 Vanguard ETFs tracked on this site, with HKD 20,000 allocated to each constituent for a total investment of HKD 820,000.
The goal is to understand the expected return and risk profile of a naive equal-weight Vanguard multi-asset portfolio — spanning US equities, international equities, fixed income, real estate, and target-date funds — without any optimisation or strategic tilting.
Portfolio Construction
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of Vanguard ETFs/Funds | 40 |
| Investment per ETF | HKD 20,000 |
| Total Investment | HKD 840,000 (40 × 20,000) |
| Weighting | Equal weight (2.5% each) |
| Asset Classes Covered | US equities, international equities, bonds, REITs, target-date funds, money market |
| Currency | HKD (converted at ~7.8 USD/HKD) |
| Data Period | 5 years (daily adjusted close, Jun 2021 – Jun 2026) |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.5% |
Note: VJP (FTSE Japan ETF) is excluded — no price data available (possibly delisted). 40 tickers with valid data are included.
Portfolio Performance Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annualised Expected Return | 8.04% |
| Annualised Standard Deviation (Risk) | 11.24% |
| Sharpe Ratio (rf=4.5%) | 0.32 |
A return of ~8.0% with ~11.2% volatility places this portfolio in a moderate risk-return zone — below a pure equity portfolio (VOO: 14.9% return / 16.9% risk) but well above a pure bond portfolio (BND: 0.3% return / 6.0% risk). The equal-weight approach gives significant weight to lower-volatility fixed-income ETFs, which dampens overall portfolio volatility.
Individual Ticker Metrics
| # | Ticker | Annualised Return | Annualised Risk (Std Dev) | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VGT | 23.37% | 25.59% | 0.74 |
| 2 | VIS | 16.12% | 18.53% | 0.63 |
| 3 | VUG | 15.72% | 22.42% | 0.50 |
| 4 | VOO | 14.90% | 16.93% | 0.61 |
| 5 | VYMI | 14.01% | 14.88% | 0.64 |
| 6 | VTI | 13.86% | 17.52% | 0.53 |
| 7 | VTV | 13.54% | 13.89% | 0.65 |
| 8 | VYM | 13.00% | 13.93% | 0.61 |
| 9 | VFH | 12.17% | 19.25% | 0.40 |
| 10 | VT | 12.23% | 16.20% | 0.48 |
| 11 | VPL | 12.12% | 17.95% | 0.42 |
| 12 | VEA | 11.57% | 16.77% | 0.42 |
| 13 | VGK | 10.92% | 17.97% | 0.36 |
| 14 | VEU | 10.44% | 16.30% | 0.36 |
| 15 | VXUS | 10.12% | 16.28% | 0.35 |
| 16 | VB | 9.97% | 20.79% | 0.26 |
| 17 | VTWO | 9.74% | 22.57% | 0.23 |
| 18 | VO | 9.66% | 17.67% | 0.29 |
| 19 | VASGX | 9.26% | 12.90% | 0.37 |
| 20 | VDC | 8.14% | 13.21% | 0.28 |
| 21 | VSS | 7.09% | 16.63% | 0.16 |
| 22 | VTHRX | 7.20% | 10.46% | 0.26 |
| 23 | VHT | 6.91% | 15.10% | 0.16 |
| 24 | VSMGX | 6.82% | 10.14% | 0.23 |
| 25 | VWO | 6.61% | 17.59% | 0.12 |
| 26 | VTTVX | 6.16% | 9.16% | 0.18 |
| 27 | VIGI | 5.75% | 14.47% | 0.09 |
| 28 | VNQ | 5.03% | 18.88% | 0.03 |
| 29 | VSCGX | 4.61% | 7.59% | 0.01 |
| 30 | VWEHX | 4.03% | 4.92% | -0.10 |
| 31 | VTIP | 3.37% | 2.77% | -0.41 |
| 32 | VWOB | 2.65% | 9.19% | -0.20 |
| 33 | VCSH | 2.49% | 2.89% | -0.70 |
| 34 | VASIX | 2.37% | 5.72% | -0.37 |
| 35 | VGSH | 1.93% | 1.98% | -1.30 |
| 36 | BSV | 1.78% | 2.74% | -0.99 |
| 37 | BNDX | 0.62% | 4.89% | -0.79 |
| 38 | BND | 0.33% | 6.03% | -0.69 |
| 39 | VNQI | 0.21% | 15.56% | -0.28 |
| 40 | VMFXX | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
Tickers sorted by annualised return descending. Bond and money market funds cluster at the bottom with near-zero or negative Sharpe ratios (a function of the current 4.5% risk-free rate).
Asset Class Breakdown
| Asset Class | Tickers | Typical Weight (Equal) |
|---|---|---|
| US Equity | VOO, VTI, VTV, VUG, VO, VB, VTWO, VDC, VHT, VFH, VIS, VGT | ~30% |
| International Equity | VEA, VEU, VGK, VPL, VWO, VXUS, VSS, VYMI, VIGI, VYM | ~25% |
| Fixed Income | BND, BNDX, BSV, VCSH, VGSH, VTIP, VWOB, VWEHX | ~20% |
| Multi-Asset / Target-Date | VASGX, VASIX, VSCGX, VSMGX, VTHRX, VTTVX | ~15% |
| Real Estate | VNQ, VNQI | ~5% |
| Money Market | VMFXX | ~2.5% |
| Other | VTV, VYM, VYMI (Value/Dividend overlap) | Included above |
Note: Some tickers span multiple categories (e.g., VTV is value equity, VYM is dividend equity). The allocation above is approximate.
Key Insights
Strengths
- Broad diversification: 40 positions across US equity, international equity, bonds, REITs, and multi-asset funds.
- Moderate volatility: At 11.24% annualised risk, the portfolio sits between conservative and aggressive — suitable for a balanced investor.
- Automatic rebalancing-friendly: Equal-weight means no complex optimisation; periodic rebalancing is straightforward.
- Low-cost structure: All Vanguard ETFs have expense ratios under 0.15%, keeping drag minimal.
Weaknesses
- Bond drag: Nearly 20% allocation to bonds (BND, BSV, VCSH, VGSH, etc.) with negative Sharpe ratios at current yields significantly drags portfolio return relative to a pure equity portfolio.
- Naive equal-weight: No strategic tilting — sectors and asset classes are represented purely by how many distinct Vanguard products exist, not by conviction or expected return.
- Currency risk: International equity exposure (~25% of portfolio) introduces non-HKD currency risk with no hedging.
- Target-date overlap: LifeStrategy and target-date funds (VASGX, VTHRX, VTTVX, etc.) internally hold the same underlying ETFs, creating hidden overlap.
Comparison With Alternatives
| Portfolio | Expected Return | Risk (Std Dev) | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Equal-Weight (this post) | 8.04% | 11.24% | 0.32 |
| VOO (S&P 500 only) | 14.90% | 16.93% | 0.61 |
| VTI (Total US Stock) | 13.86% | 17.52% | 0.53 |
| VT (Total World Stock) | 12.23% | 16.20% | 0.48 |
| VSMGX (60/40 Balanced) | 6.82% | 10.14% | 0.23 |
| VASIX (Conservative) | 2.37% | 5.72% | -0.37 |
The equal-weight Vanguard portfolio occupies a reasonable middle ground — higher return than a 60/40 balanced fund (VSMGX) but with only slightly more risk, thanks to the bond allocation. However, a simple VT (Total World) portfolio delivers 12.23% return with 16.20% risk — a significantly higher return-per-unit-of-risk than the naive equal-weight approach.
Methodology
- Data source: Yahoo Finance via
yfinance(scripts/lib/fetcher.py). - Data period: 5 years of daily adjusted close prices.
- Currency conversion: All USD prices converted to HKD at a fixed rate of 7.8.
- Portfolio weighting: Equal weight — each of the 40 Vanguard ETFs receives HKD 20,000.
- Return calculation: Annualised expected return = ((1 + mean daily return)^252 - 1).
- Risk calculation: Annualised standard deviation = daily std × √252.
- Sharpe ratio: (Annualised return − 4.5%) / Annualised risk.
Data fetched via yfinance. VJP excluded due to delisting/no data. Last updated: 2026-06-30.