The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most widely cited measure of inflation in the United States. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services — from groceries and rent to medical care and airline tickets.
Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Latest Reading
As of March 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CPI-U Index Level | 325.8 |
| Year-over-Year Change | +2.1% |
| Month-over-Month Change | −0.1% |
| Core CPI (ex. Food & Energy) | +3.0% YoY |
| Food | +2.8% YoY |
| Energy | −3.5% YoY |
| Shelter | +4.2% YoY |
Headline inflation has cooled significantly from its June 2022 peak of +9.1%, the highest in over 40 years. The Fed’s 2% target remains the benchmark — headline CPI is now within striking distance, though core and shelter remain sticky.
Interactive Charts
CPI Year-over-Year Inflation Rate
US CPI-U — Year-over-Year Inflation Rate
Monthly % change vs. same month prior year — Source: BLS
CPI Index Level (1982–84 = 100)
CPI-U All Items Index Level
1982–84 = 100 baseline — Source: BLS
CPI Component Breakdown (March 2026)
CPI Components — Year-over-Year Change
March 2026 — % change vs. March 2025 — Source: BLS
The Inflation Cycle: 2020 – 2026
| Period | Headline CPI | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Mar 2020 | ~2.3% | Pre-pandemic, on-target |
| Apr–Jun 2020 | 0.1%–0.6% | Demand collapse, energy crash |
| Apr–Jun 2021 | 4.2%–5.4% | Base effects + reopening surge |
| Oct 2021 | 6.2% | Supply chain crunch, energy spike |
| Jun 2022 | 9.1% | Peak — 40-year high |
| Jun 2023 | 3.0% | Fed tightening takes hold |
| Sep 2024 | 2.4% | Disinflation continues |
| Mar 2026 | 2.1% | Near-target; shelter still sticky |
The 2021–2022 inflation surge was driven by an unusual confluence of factors: pandemic-era fiscal stimulus flooding the economy with cash, supply chain bottlenecks constraining goods supply, an energy price shock amplified by geopolitical tensions, and a labour market that tightened faster than expected. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive 525bps of rate hikes (March 2022 – July 2023) has since brought inflation down sharply.
Why Shelter Inflation Remains Elevated
Shelter — which includes rent and the “owners’ equivalent rent” (OER) imputation — accounts for roughly 34% of the overall CPI basket and about 43% of core CPI. It has remained persistently high (+4.2% YoY as of March 2026) due to:
- Lease renewal lag: BLS measures rents on all leases, not just new signings. New lease growth slowed sharply in 2023–2024, but the full effect won’t flow through to the CPI measure until older leases turn over.
- Housing supply shortage: Decades of under-building relative to household formation have kept vacancy rates low, sustaining rent levels.
- Higher mortgage rates: Elevated rates locked existing homeowners out of the resale market, reducing supply and keeping renters in place longer.
Real-time rent trackers (Apartment List, Zillow) have shown rent growth below 2% since mid-2023, suggesting the official CPI shelter component will continue to decelerate over the next several quarters.
Core vs. Headline CPI
Headline CPI (+2.1%) includes all items — notably the volatile food and energy categories. Because oil prices and agricultural commodities can swing sharply on supply shocks unrelated to monetary policy, the Fed focuses primarily on core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy) as its preferred inflation gauge.
Core CPI (+3.0%) strips out food and energy. Its persistence above the Fed’s effective 2% target is the primary reason the Federal Reserve has kept the fed funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% rather than cutting aggressively.
Key Takeaways
- Headline within reach: At +2.1% YoY, headline CPI is the closest it has been to the Fed’s 2% target since February 2021.
- Core is stickier: Core CPI at +3.0% reflects services inflation that responds more slowly to monetary tightening — particularly shelter, medical care, and education.
- Energy is disinflationary: Energy prices are down −3.5% YoY, providing a significant drag on headline inflation.
- Shelter deceleration is the key watch item: A further decline in shelter inflation (currently +4.2%) is necessary for core CPI to sustainably reach 2%.
- Fed policy path: With core inflation still above target, the Fed is unlikely to resume cutting rates until late 2026 at the earliest, barring a material weakening in the labour market.
Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI-U, All Urban Consumers, Not Seasonally Adjusted (Series CUUR0000SA0). Script: scripts/fetch_cpi.py. Last updated: April 2026.