The Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate is the single most-watched number in global finance. This post tracks the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) — the actual overnight lending rate between banks — alongside all major FOMC policy decisions from 2015 to the present.
Data source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
Current Rate Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Target Range | 4.25 – 4.50% |
| Effective Rate (latest) | 4.33% |
| Last FOMC Change | −0.25% (Dec 18, 2024) |
| 12-Month Average | 4.46% |
| Historical Low | 0.05% (Apr 2020) |
| Historical High | 19.10% (Jun 1981) |
| Data Since | July 1954 |
Interactive Chart
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Monthly average, % — Source: FRED / Federal Reserve
Recent FOMC Policy Decisions
| Date | Target Range | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2024 | 4.25–4.50% | −0.25% | Third consecutive cut |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 4.50–4.75% | −0.25% | Second cut |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 4.75–5.00% | −0.50% | First cut – start of easing cycle |
| Jul 26, 2023 | 5.25–5.50% | +0.25% | Cycle peak |
| May 3, 2023 | 5.00–5.25% | +0.25% | |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 4.75–5.00% | +0.25% | |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 4.50–4.75% | +0.25% | |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 4.25–4.50% | +0.50% | |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 3.75–4.00% | +0.75% | |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 3.00–3.25% | +0.75% | |
| Jul 27, 2022 | 2.25–2.50% | +0.75% | |
| Jun 15, 2022 | 1.50–1.75% | +0.75% | Largest hike since 1994 |
| May 4, 2022 | 0.75–1.00% | +0.50% | |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 0.25–0.50% | +0.25% | First post-COVID hike |
| Mar 15, 2020 | 0.00–0.25% | −1.00% | Emergency cut – COVID-19 |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1.00–1.25% | −0.50% | Emergency cut – COVID-19 |
Historical Rate Cycles
| Cycle | Period | Peak / Trough | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-War tightening | 1954–1970 | ~9% | Economic expansion |
| Great Inflation | 1973–1979 | ~13.8% | Oil shocks, stagflation |
| Volcker shock | 1980–1981 | 19.1% | Breaking inflation expectations |
| 1990s moderation | 1992–2000 | 5.5–6.5% | “Soft landing” era |
| Dot-com response | 2001–2004 | Trough 1.0% | Recession + 9/11 |
| Housing bubble | 2004–2007 | 5.25% | Liquidity tightening |
| Financial Crisis | 2008–2015 | Trough 0.05% | Zero-lower-bound policy |
| Normalization | 2015–2018 | 2.4% | Gradual exit from ZIRP |
| COVID response | 2020 | Trough 0.05% | Pandemic emergency |
| Post-COVID hiking | 2022–2023 | 5.33% | Inflation fight |
| Easing cycle | 2024–present | 4.33% (eff.) | Controlled descent |
Key Takeaways
- Current stance is restrictive: At 4.25–4.50%, the target range remains well above the estimated neutral rate (~2.5–3%).
- Easing has begun but is gradual: The Fed cut 100bps total in late 2024; the pace slowed and paused in 2025 amid persistent service-sector inflation.
- Historical context: The 2022–2023 tightening cycle (0.08% → 5.33% in 16 months) was the fastest since the Volcker era.
- Market sensitivity: Every FOMC meeting and inflation print (CPI, PCE) moves bond yields and equity valuations globally.
Data: FRED FEDFUNDS series (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Script: data/fetch_fed_rate.py. Last updated: April 2026.
FEDinterest-ratemonetary-policyFOMC