The US Treasury yield curve is one of the most closely watched signals in global finance. It plots the yields of US government bonds across different maturities — from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds — and its shape reveals how the market prices growth expectations, inflation risk, and monetary policy.
Data source: US Department of the Treasury
Current Yield Curve Snapshot
As of April 11, 2026
| Tenor | Yield |
|---|---|
| 1-Month | 4.30% |
| 3-Month | 4.22% |
| 6-Month | 4.07% |
| 1-Year | 3.85% |
| 2-Year | 3.80% |
| 5-Year | 4.02% |
| 10-Year | 4.28% |
| 20-Year | 4.59% |
| 30-Year | 4.64% |
| 2Y–10Y Spread | +0.48% (Normal) |
| 2Y–30Y Spread | +0.84% |
After being inverted for over two years (mid-2022 to mid-2024), the yield curve has returned to a normal upward slope.
Interactive Charts
Current Yield Curve
US Treasury Yield Curve
April 11, 2026 — Yield (%) by tenor — Source: US Treasury
Historical Yield Curve Comparison
Yield Curve — Selected Snapshots
Comparing curve shape across different rate regimes — Source: US Treasury
2-Year / 10-Year Spread History
2Y–10Y Treasury Spread
Positive = normal; negative = inverted — Source: US Treasury
The Great Inversion: 2022–2024
| Period | 2Y Yield | 10Y Yield | Spread | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | 1.17% | 1.79% | +0.62% | Normal |
| Jun 2022 | 3.05% | 3.02% | −0.03% | Just inverted |
| Mar 2023 | 4.61% | 3.66% | −0.95% | Peak inversion |
| Jun 2023 | 4.87% | 3.84% | −1.03% | Deepest point |
| Sep 2024 | 3.65% | 3.78% | +0.13% | Un-inverted |
| Apr 2026 | 3.80% | 4.28% | +0.48% | Normal (current) |
The 2Y–10Y spread remained negative for 27 consecutive months (June 2022 – August 2024) — the longest sustained inversion since the early 1980s. The curve fully normalised in September 2024 as the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle, cutting rates by 100bps before pausing.
What the Yield Curve Signals
Normal curve (positive slope): Long-term bonds yield more than short-term bills. This reflects expectations of continued economic growth and higher future inflation. It is the baseline state for a healthy economy.
Flat curve: Short and long rates are nearly identical. This often signals a transition — either the economy is slowing from a period of tight policy, or the market is uncertain about the future path of rates.
Inverted curve (negative slope): Short-term yields exceed long-term yields. Historically this occurs when the Fed has raised rates aggressively, causing short-end yields to spike while long-end yields price in an eventual economic slowdown and future rate cuts.
Inversion as a Recession Predictor
The 2Y–10Y spread has inverted before every US recession in the past 50 years — though with variable lead times of 6 to 24 months. The 2022–2024 inversion was the most severe in four decades, yet the anticipated recession did not materialise, producing what many analysts call a “soft landing.” This episode has revived debate about whether the yield curve has lost some of its predictive power in an era of heavy central bank intervention.
Key Takeaways
- Curve is normalising: After 27 months of inversion, the 2Y–10Y spread is now +0.48% — consistent with a late-cycle, easing-policy environment.
- Front end still restrictive: The 3-month T-bill at 4.22% remains close to the effective Fed funds rate of 4.33%, suggesting markets expect rates to stay higher for longer.
- Long end pricing in premium: 10Y–30Y yields (4.28%–4.64%) reflect a term premium — investors demand more yield for locking in capital over decades amid fiscal deficit concerns.
- Soft landing achieved: The historic inversion of 2022–2024 did not produce the recession it historically portended — unemployment remains low and growth has continued.
- Watch for re-inversion: Any surprise resurgence in inflation that pushes the Fed to resume hiking would likely flatten or re-invert the curve, particularly if long-end inflation expectations remain anchored.
Data: US Department of the Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Script: scripts/fetch_yield_curve.py. Last updated: April 2026.