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US Equities · Finance research note

APH — Amphenol

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 27.3%
Profit Margins 17.24%
Return on Equity 36.83%
Return on Assets 13.45%
Free Float 1.22B
Dividend Yield 0.61%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.65%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 58.4%
Free Cash Flow 3.56B
EBITDA 24.21 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 197.86B
EV/Revenue 7.64
EV/EBITDA 24.21

Revenue growth of 58.4% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 70.70%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 44.43%
1-Year Price Return* 54.06%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $167.11
52-Week Range $104.71 – $178.52
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $23.09B $15.22B
Net income Reported net income $4.27B $2.42B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $36.24B $21.44B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $13.41B $9.79B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.49% 15.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6373x 0.7100x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.7016x 2.1896x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 31.84% 24.75%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $23.09B
Prior annual revenue $15.22B
EBIT $5.97B
Tax rate 23.13%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $4.59B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $4.59B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $922.40M
Less: capital expenditure -$996.60M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $77.20M
Current unlevered FCFF $4.59B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $5.28B $1.06B -$1.15B $88.78M $5.28B $5.01B
2 11.88% $5.90B $1.19B -$1.26B $99.32M $5.93B $5.08B
3 8.75% $6.42B $1.29B -$1.34B $108.01M $6.48B $5.00B
4 5.62% $6.78B $1.36B -$1.39B $114.09M $6.87B $4.78B
5 2.50% $6.95B $1.40B -$1.40B $116.94M $7.07B $4.43B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.25
Cost of equity 11.59%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.29%
WACC 10.93%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $85.95B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.23x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.81%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $24.29B
Present value of terminal value $51.17B
Indicated enterprise value $75.47B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $75.47B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $15.50B
Add: cash and equivalents $11.43B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $96.60M
Indicated common equity value $71.30B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,277,500,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $158.87
DCF indicative value per share $55.81
Indicative value vs. market price -64.87%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:22:56.074993 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 54.50% 40.18%
Adjusted R² 0.26 0.26
Annualised residual volatility 38.34% 38.06%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.59 (7.04) 1.37 (5.32)
Size (SMB) -0.09 (-0.30) -0.06 (-0.18)
Value (HML) -0.37 (-1.42) -0.11 (-0.34)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.32 (-1.16)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.48 (-1.02)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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