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FISV — Fiserv

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
EBITDA N/A (Ratio)

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -51.52%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 57.44%
1-Year Price Return* -60.21%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $54.39
52-Week Range $47.04 – $140.42
Observation Count 250 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $21.19B $20.46B
Net income Reported net income $3.48B $3.13B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $80.13B $77.18B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $25.79B $27.07B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 16.42% 15.31%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.2645x 0.2651x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.1069x 2.8512x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 13.49% 11.57%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $21.19B
Prior annual revenue $20.46B
EBIT $5.79B
Tax rate 19.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $4.69B
Forecast start-growth basis 3.60%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $4.69B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.16B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.76B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$9.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $6.08B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 3.60% $4.86B $3.27B -$1.83B -$9.32M $6.30B $6.08B
2 3.33% $5.02B $3.38B -$2.26B -$9.63M $6.14B $5.52B
3 3.05% $5.18B $3.49B -$2.72B -$9.93M $5.94B $4.97B
4 2.78% $5.32B $3.58B -$3.19B -$10.20M $5.71B $4.45B
5 2.50% $5.45B $3.67B -$3.67B -$10.46M $5.44B $3.96B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.00
Cost of equity 10.21%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.66%
WACC 7.35%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $115.18B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.07x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 76.38%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $24.99B
Present value of terminal value $80.81B
Indicated enterprise value $105.79B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $105.79B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $29.12B
Add: cash and equivalents $798.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $17.00M
Indicated common equity value $77.45B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 549,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $52.71
DCF indicative value per share $141.08
Indicative value vs. market price 167.65%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:33:47.925350 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 216
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -70.16% -62.60%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.09
Annualised residual volatility 57.68% 56.18%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.51 (1.51) 1.03 (2.71)
Size (SMB) 1.16 (2.52) 0.86 (1.78)
Value (HML) 0.07 (0.18) -0.83 (-1.75)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.48 (1.19)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.97 (2.82)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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