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GEV — GE Vernova

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 5.46%
Profit Margins 23.81%
Return on Equity 75.71%
Return on Assets 2.38%
Free Float 0.27B
Dividend Yield 0.19%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.42%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 16.3%
Free Cash Flow 9.32B
EBITDA 66.8 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 228.13B
EV/Revenue 5.79
EV/EBITDA 66.8

Revenue growth of 16.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 96.58%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 52.02%
1-Year Price Return* 71.35%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $1,063.25
52-Week Range $530.16 – $1,195.94
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $38.07B $34.94B
Net income Reported net income $4.88B $1.55B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $63.02B $51.48B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $11.18B $9.55B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.83% 4.44%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6041x 0.6785x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 5.6375x 5.3934x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 43.69% 16.26%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $38.07B
Prior annual revenue $34.94B
EBIT $1.39B
Tax rate 21.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.10B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.97%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.10B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $853.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$1.28B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $4.10B
Current unlevered FCFF $4.77B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.97% $1.20B $929.50M -$1.39B $4.46B $5.20B $4.95B
2 7.35% $1.28B $997.83M -$1.37B $4.79B $5.70B $4.92B
3 5.73% $1.36B $1.06B -$1.32B $5.07B $6.16B $4.81B
4 4.12% $1.41B $1.10B -$1.23B $5.28B $6.55B $4.64B
5 2.50% $1.45B $1.13B -$1.13B $5.41B $6.86B $4.40B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.03
Cost of equity 10.39%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 10.37%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $89.24B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 30.16x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 69.67%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $23.72B
Present value of terminal value $54.48B
Indicated enterprise value $78.20B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $78.20B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $1.17B
Add: cash and equivalents $9.31B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.12B
Indicated common equity value $85.22B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 276,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $1,012.22
DCF indicative value per share $308.77
Indicative value vs. market price -69.50%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:34:55.031337 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 76.71% 49.92%
Adjusted R² 0.26 0.28
Annualised residual volatility 44.21% 43.55%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.02 (7.78) 1.66 (5.64)
Size (SMB) -0.50 (-1.41) -0.46 (-1.23)
Value (HML) -0.09 (-0.29) 0.33 (0.91)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.56 (-1.78)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.75 (-1.39)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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