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US Equities · Finance research note

HUM — Humana

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.67%
Profit Margins 0.82%
Return on Equity 6.28%
Return on Assets 3.64%
Free Float 0.12B
Dividend Yield 0.92%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.79%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 23.5%
Free Cash Flow 1.43B
EBITDA 10.78 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 36.23B
EV/Revenue 0.26
EV/EBITDA 10.78

Revenue growth of 23.5% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 56.76%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.90%
1-Year Price Return* 37.81%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $389.05
52-Week Range $163.11 – $428.88
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $129.66B $117.76B
Net income Reported net income $1.19B $1.21B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $48.91B $46.48B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $17.66B $16.38B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 0.92% 1.02%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 2.6511x 2.5336x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.7699x 2.8384x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 6.73% 7.37%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $129.66B
Prior annual revenue $117.76B
EBIT $2.19B
Tax rate 17.40%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.81B
Forecast start-growth basis 10.11%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.81B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $824.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$546.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.80B
Current unlevered FCFF $286.64M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 10.11% $1.99B $907.29M -$601.19M -$1.98B $315.61M $303.92M
2 8.21% $2.15B $981.74M -$733.33M -$2.14B $258.70M $231.02M
3 6.30% $2.29B $1.04B -$867.58M -$2.28B $186.99M $154.84M
4 4.40% $2.39B $1.09B -$997.67M -$2.38B $103.32M $79.34M
5 2.50% $2.45B $1.12B -$1.12B -$2.44B $11.70M $8.33M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.74
Cost of equity 8.78%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.24%
WACC 7.84%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $224.78M
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 0.06x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 16.55%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $777.46M
Present value of terminal value $154.14M
Indicated enterprise value $931.59M
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $931.59M
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $12.37B
Add: cash and equivalents $19.90B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $80.00M
Indicated common equity value $8.39B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 120,826,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $382.78
DCF indicative value per share $69.40
Indicative value vs. market price -81.87%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 2/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:37:11.296815 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 31.92% 31.65%
Adjusted R² 0.03 0.02
Annualised residual volatility 49.00% 48.82%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.58 (2.02) 0.61 (1.83)
Size (SMB) 0.43 (1.09) 0.23 (0.56)
Value (HML) 0.41 (1.22) 0.16 (0.38)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.21 (-0.59)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.73 (1.21)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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