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META — Meta Platforms

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Free Float 2.19B
Short Int % Utilisation 1.37%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
EV/EBITDA 13.11

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -19.01%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 38.51%
1-Year Price Return* -24.64%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $589.85
52-Week Range $520.26 – $796.25
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $200.97B $164.50B
Net income Reported net income $60.46B $62.36B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $366.02B $276.05B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $217.24B $182.64B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 30.08% 37.91%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5491x 0.5959x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6848x 1.5115x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 27.83% 34.14%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $200.97B
Prior annual revenue $164.50B
EBIT $87.10B
Tax rate 29.64%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $61.28B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $61.28B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $18.62B
Less: capital expenditure -$69.69B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$885.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $9.32B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $70.47B $21.41B -$80.14B -$1.02B $10.72B $10.17B
2 11.88% $78.84B $23.95B -$73.23B -$1.14B $28.42B $24.31B
3 8.75% $85.74B $26.05B -$61.78B -$1.24B $48.77B $37.60B
4 5.62% $90.56B $27.51B -$46.38B -$1.31B $70.38B $48.90B
5 2.50% $92.82B $28.20B -$28.20B -$1.34B $91.48B $57.28B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.24
Cost of equity 11.55%
Pre-tax cost of debt 1.75%
WACC 10.96%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $1,107.98B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.92x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 78.70%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $178.27B
Present value of terminal value $658.63B
Indicated enterprise value $836.90B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $836.90B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $83.90B
Add: cash and equivalents $81.59B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $834.59B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 2,574,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $547.33
DCF indicative value per share $324.24
Indicative value vs. market price -40.76%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:41:45.871399 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -38.28% -31.93%
Adjusted R² 0.28 0.33
Annualised residual volatility 30.21% 28.90%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.39 (7.82) 1.54 (7.88)
Size (SMB) -0.37 (-1.52) 0.02 (0.09)
Value (HML) -0.19 (-0.92) 0.11 (0.45)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.76 (3.67)
Investment (CMA) NM -1.15 (-3.19)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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