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MPWR — Monolithic Power Systems

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 29.99%
Profit Margins 22.98%
Return on Equity 19.57%
Return on Assets 12.13%
Free Float 0.05B
Dividend Yield 0.56%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.35%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 26.1%
Free Cash Flow 0.49B
EBITDA 82.86 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 71.02B
EV/Revenue 24.02
EV/EBITDA 82.86

Revenue growth of 26.1% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 97.41%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 53.14%
1-Year Price Return* 70.83%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $1,402.01
52-Week Range $800.97 – $1,714.09
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $2.79B $2.21B
Net income Reported net income $621.48M $1.59B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $4.19B $3.52B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.53B $2.95B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 22.27% 72.13%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6653x 0.6278x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.1877x 1.1913x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 17.60% 53.95%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $2.79B
Prior annual revenue $2.21B
EBIT $728.64M
Tax rate 18.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $590.92M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $590.92M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $52.51M
Less: capital expenditure -$174.94M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$88.11M
Current unlevered FCFF $380.39M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $679.56M $60.39M -$201.18M -$101.32M $437.45M $409.74M
2 11.88% $760.26M $67.56M -$185.69M -$113.35M $528.77M $434.52M
3 8.75% $826.78M $73.47M -$159.12M -$123.27M $617.86M $445.45M
4 5.62% $873.29M $77.61M -$122.84M -$130.21M $697.85M $441.40M
5 2.50% $895.12M $79.55M -$79.55M -$133.46M $761.66M $422.66M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.69
Cost of equity 13.98%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 13.98%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $6.80B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 5.75x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 62.13%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.15B
Present value of terminal value $3.53B
Indicated enterprise value $5.69B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $5.69B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $19.97M
Add: cash and equivalents $1.26B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $6.92B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 48,309,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $1,319.40
DCF indicative value per share $143.33
Indicative value vs. market price -89.14%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:42:24.280585 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 15.35% -2.88%
Adjusted R² 0.43 0.45
Annualised residual volatility 39.30% 38.30%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.78 (12.03) 2.45 (9.45)
Size (SMB) -0.28 (-0.90) -0.56 (-1.70)
Value (HML) 0.62 (2.29) 0.63 (1.95)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.92 (-3.33)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.45 (0.95)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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