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NVDA — Nvidia

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Free Float 23.23B
Short Int % Utilisation 1.29%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
EV/EBITDA 29.00

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 33.92%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 36.88%
1-Year Price Return* 24.94%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $225.16
52-Week Range $164.07 – $236.54
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $215.94B $130.50B
Net income Reported net income $120.07B $72.88B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $206.80B $111.60B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $157.29B $79.33B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 55.60% 55.85%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0442x 1.1693x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.3148x 1.4068x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 76.33% 91.87%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $215.94B
Prior annual revenue $130.50B
EBIT $141.71B
Tax rate 15.12%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $120.29B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $120.29B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.84B
Less: capital expenditure -$6.04B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$15.95B
Current unlevered FCFF $101.14B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $138.33B $3.27B -$6.95B -$18.34B $116.31B $107.59B
2 11.88% $154.76B $3.66B -$6.74B -$20.52B $131.15B $103.81B
3 8.75% $168.30B $3.98B -$6.22B -$22.31B $143.74B $97.36B
4 5.62% $177.76B $4.20B -$5.38B -$23.57B $153.01B $88.68B
5 2.50% $182.21B $4.31B -$4.31B -$24.16B $158.05B $78.38B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 2.21
Cost of equity 16.89%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.46%
WACC 16.86%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $1,127.83B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 5.15x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 52.09%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $475.83B
Present value of terminal value $517.42B
Indicated enterprise value $993.25B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $993.25B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $11.04B
Add: cash and equivalents $62.56B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $1,044.77B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 24,514,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $220.41
DCF indicative value per share $42.62
Indicative value vs. market price -80.66%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:44:07.997861 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 3.51% -2.00%
Adjusted R² 0.52 0.61
Annualised residual volatility 25.19% 22.79%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.77 (11.96) 1.59 (10.29)
Size (SMB) -0.85 (-4.22) -0.40 (-2.04)
Value (HML) -0.54 (-3.15) 0.18 (0.94)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.27 (1.67)
Investment (CMA) NM -1.94 (-6.84)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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