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PANW — Palo Alto Networks

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins -2.46%
Profit Margins 7.95%
Return on Equity 4.83%
Return on Assets 1.77%
Free Float 0.81B
Short Int % Utilisation 3.17%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 31.1%
Free Cash Flow 3.58B
EBITDA 143.95 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 213.54B
EV/Revenue 20.13
EV/EBITDA 143.95

Revenue growth of 31.1% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 137.73%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 41.48%
1-Year Price Return* 116.99%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $384.27
52-Week Range $139.57 – $398.88
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $9.22B $8.03B
Net income Reported net income $1.13B $2.58B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $23.58B $19.99B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $7.82B $5.17B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.30% 32.11%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3911x 0.4016x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.0132x 3.8669x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 14.49% 49.86%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $9.22B
Prior annual revenue $8.03B
EBIT $1.60B
Tax rate 28.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.14B
Forecast start-growth basis 14.87%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.14B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $343.40M
Less: capital expenditure -$246.20M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $922.80M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.16B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 14.87% $1.30B $394.48M -$282.82M $1.06B $2.48B $2.37B
2 11.78% $1.46B $440.95M -$347.34M $1.18B $2.74B $2.39B
3 8.69% $1.59B $479.25M -$411.43M $1.29B $2.94B $2.34B
4 5.59% $1.67B $506.06M -$470.25M $1.36B $3.07B $2.23B
5 2.50% $1.72B $518.71M -$518.71M $1.39B $3.11B $2.06B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.89
Cost of equity 9.62%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.23%
WACC 9.61%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $44.81B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 15.28x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 71.35%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $11.37B
Present value of terminal value $28.32B
Indicated enterprise value $39.69B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $39.69B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $338.20M
Add: cash and equivalents $2.90B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $42.26B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 709,300,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $374.26
DCF indicative value per share $59.57
Indicative value vs. market price -84.08%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:45:01.013399 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-07-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 127.92% 96.69%
Adjusted R² 0.18 0.20
Annualised residual volatility 36.21% 35.52%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.91 (4.27) 0.62 (2.58)
Size (SMB) -0.24 (-0.83) -0.42 (-1.38)
Value (HML) -0.75 (-3.01) -0.66 (-2.19)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.73 (-2.86)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.18 (0.40)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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