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RCL — Royal Caribbean Group

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 26.17%
Profit Margins 24.36%
Return on Equity 49.58%
Return on Assets 8.08%
Free Float 0.25B
Dividend Yield 1.55%
Short Int % Utilisation 7.33%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 11.3%
Free Cash Flow -0.19B
EBITDA 13.56 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 93.57B
EV/Revenue 5.09
EV/EBITDA 13.56

Revenue growth of 11.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 10.23%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 47.36%
1-Year Price Return* -1.19%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $305.00
52-Week Range $232.10 – $366.50
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $17.93B $16.48B
Net income Reported net income $4.27B $2.88B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $41.62B $37.07B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $10.04B $7.56B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 23.80% 17.45%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4309x 0.4447x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 4.1466x 4.9015x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 42.52% 38.04%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.93B
Prior annual revenue $16.48B
EBIT $5.37B
Tax rate 1.88%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $5.26B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.79%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $5.26B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.72B
Less: capital expenditure -$5.23B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $383.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.14B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.79% $5.73B $1.87B -$5.69B $416.66M $2.32B $2.19B
2 7.22% $6.14B $2.00B -$5.08B $446.74M $3.52B $2.95B
3 5.64% $6.49B $2.12B -$4.28B $471.96M $4.80B $3.58B
4 4.07% $6.75B $2.20B -$3.33B $491.18M $6.12B $4.07B
5 2.50% $6.92B $2.26B -$2.26B $503.45M $7.42B $4.40B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.78
Cost of equity 14.50%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.63%
WACC 12.35%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $77.25B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.30x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 71.51%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $17.19B
Present value of terminal value $43.16B
Indicated enterprise value $60.35B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $60.35B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $22.04B
Add: cash and equivalents $825.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $208.00M
Indicated common equity value $38.94B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 274,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $299.56
DCF indicative value per share $142.10
Indicative value vs. market price -52.56%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:47:13.144515 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -29.88% -20.03%
Adjusted R² 0.27 0.30
Annualised residual volatility 41.45% 40.43%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.73 (7.07) 2.05 (7.47)
Size (SMB) 0.91 (2.75) 0.65 (1.86)
Value (HML) 0.37 (1.31) -0.28 (-0.81)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.20 (0.68)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.50 (2.98)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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