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ROK — Rockwell Automation

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 20.72%
Profit Margins 12.36%
Return on Equity 27.18%
Return on Assets 9.34%
Free Float 0.11B
Dividend Yield 1.15%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.38%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 11.9%
Free Cash Flow 0.97B
EBITDA 26.74 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 52.65B
EV/Revenue 5.98
EV/EBITDA 26.74

Revenue growth of 11.9% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 40.52%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.12%
1-Year Price Return* 33.14%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $449.37
52-Week Range $332.71 – $497.36
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $8.34B $8.26B
Net income Reported net income $867.00M $948.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $11.22B $11.23B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.65B $3.50B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 10.39% 11.47%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7436x 0.7358x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.0703x 3.2110x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 23.73% 27.10%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $8.34B
Prior annual revenue $8.26B
EBIT $1.07B
Tax rate 18.32%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $876.42M
Forecast start-growth basis 0.94%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $876.42M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $325.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$186.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $213.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.23B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 0.94% $884.69M $328.07M -$187.76M $215.01M $1.24B $1.17B
2 1.33% $896.48M $332.44M -$225.80M $217.88M $1.22B $1.02B
3 1.72% $911.92M $338.16M -$265.85M $221.63M $1.21B $899.04M
4 2.11% $931.17M $345.30M -$308.38M $226.31M $1.19B $791.82M
5 2.50% $954.45M $353.94M -$353.94M $231.96M $1.19B $699.36M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.53
Cost of equity 13.15%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.04%
WACC 12.46%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $12.21B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.02x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 59.68%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $4.58B
Present value of terminal value $6.79B
Indicated enterprise value $11.37B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $11.37B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $3.65B
Add: cash and equivalents $468.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $57.00M
Indicated common equity value $8.13B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 113,100,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $434.95
DCF indicative value per share $71.91
Indicative value vs. market price -83.47%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:47:44.235348 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 6.28% 5.13%
Adjusted R² 0.49 0.50
Annualised residual volatility 21.69% 21.42%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.64 (12.84) 1.64 (11.29)
Size (SMB) 0.29 (1.70) 0.14 (0.74)
Value (HML) 0.55 (3.69) 0.36 (2.00)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.20 (-1.33)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.57 (2.14)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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