Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to US Equities

US Equities · Finance research note

SMCI — Supermicro

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse US Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.11%
Profit Margins 3.7%
Return on Equity 17.88%
Return on Assets 5.52%
Free Float 0.5B
Short Int % Utilisation 16.55%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 122.7%
Free Cash Flow -7.45B
EBITDA 16.12 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 25.45B
EV/Revenue 0.76
EV/EBITDA 16.12

Revenue growth of 122.7% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 34.43%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 91.00%
1-Year Price Return* -12.19%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $39.84
52-Week Range $19.48 – $58.78
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $21.97B $14.99B
Net income Reported net income $1.05B $1.15B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $14.02B $9.83B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.30B $5.42B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.77% 7.69%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.5674x 1.5255x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.2245x 1.8139x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 16.64% 21.28%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $21.97B
Prior annual revenue $14.99B
EBIT $1.27B
Tax rate 12.94%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.11B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.11B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $58.34M
Less: capital expenditure -$127.21M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $390.03M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.43B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $1.27B $67.10M -$146.30M $448.53M $1.64B $1.54B
2 11.88% $1.42B $75.06M -$141.52M $501.79M $1.86B $1.54B
3 8.75% $1.55B $81.63M -$129.81M $545.70M $2.05B $1.50B
4 5.62% $1.64B $86.22M -$111.67M $576.40M $2.19B $1.42B
5 2.50% $1.68B $88.38M -$88.38M $590.81M $2.27B $1.30B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.97
Cost of equity 15.53%
Pre-tax cost of debt 1.71%
WACC 13.21%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $21.70B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.77x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 61.51%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $7.30B
Present value of terminal value $11.67B
Indicated enterprise value $18.97B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $18.97B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $4.78B
Add: cash and equivalents $5.17B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $178,000.00
Indicated common equity value $19.36B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 628,402,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $37.32
DCF indicative value per share $30.81
Indicative value vs. market price -17.44%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:48:41.810411 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-06-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -52.43% -67.70%
Adjusted R² 0.30 0.33
Annualised residual volatility 74.16% 71.93%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 3.86 (8.84) 3.09 (6.34)
Size (SMB) -0.74 (-1.25) -1.19 (-1.92)
Value (HML) 0.31 (0.61) 0.58 (0.96)
Profitability (RMW) NM -1.87 (-3.62)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.33 (0.37)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequitysmciinformation-technologytechnology-hardware,-storage--peripheralsnasdaq