Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to US Equities

US Equities · Finance research note

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse US Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 77.22%
Profit Margins 60.02%
Return on Equity 36.47%
Return on Assets 25.19%
Free Float 0.06B
Dividend Yield 0.61%
Short Int % Utilisation 9.5%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 20.8%
Free Cash Flow -0.06B
EBITDA 37.16 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 25.65B
EV/Revenue 30.57
EV/EBITDA 37.16

Revenue growth of 20.8% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 38.68%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.66%
1-Year Price Return* 22.69%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $358.52
52-Week Range $269.23 – $547.20
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $798.19M $705.82M
Net income Reported net income $481.38M $453.96M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $1.62B $1.25B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $1.46B $1.13B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 60.31% 64.32%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4917x 0.5656x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.1127x 1.1020x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 33.00% 40.09%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $798.19M
Prior annual revenue $705.82M
EBIT $611.02M
Tax rate 21.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $482.09M
Forecast start-growth basis 13.09%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $482.09M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $62.53M
Less: capital expenditure -$513.77M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$19.90M
Current unlevered FCFF $10.96M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 13.09% $545.18M $70.72M -$581.01M -$22.50M $12.39M $11.91M
2 10.44% $602.10M $78.10M -$500.77M -$24.85M $154.57M $137.35M
3 7.79% $649.02M $84.19M -$387.93M -$26.79M $318.49M $261.58M
4 5.15% $682.42M $88.52M -$248.21M -$28.16M $494.57M $375.44M
5 2.50% $699.49M $90.73M -$90.73M -$28.87M $670.62M $470.53M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.63
Cost of equity 8.19%
Pre-tax cost of debt 8.30%
WACC 8.19%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $12.08B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 12.36x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 86.63%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.26B
Present value of terminal value $8.15B
Indicated enterprise value $9.40B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $9.40B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $16.18M
Add: cash and equivalents $144.81M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $9.53B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 69,027,492.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $361.01
DCF indicative value per share $138.07
Indicative value vs. market price -61.75%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:51:08.146078 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 32.58% 20.15%
Adjusted R² 0.03 0.05
Annualised residual volatility 47.42% 46.63%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.59 (2.11) 0.43 (1.37)
Size (SMB) 0.20 (0.54) -0.18 (-0.44)
Value (HML) 0.76 (2.34) 0.47 (1.20)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.75 (-2.26)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.11 (1.91)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequitytplenergyoil--gas-exploration--productionnasdaq