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VRTX — Vertex Pharmaceuticals

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 38.13%
Profit Margins 35.51%
Return on Equity 24.2%
Return on Assets 12.14%
Free Float 0.25B
Short Int % Utilisation 2.0%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.8%
Free Cash Flow 2.78B
EBITDA 21.14 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 105.33B
EV/Revenue 8.62
EV/EBITDA 21.14

Revenue growth of 7.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 34.14%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 28.12%
1-Year Price Return* 28.76%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $505.75
52-Week Range $374.17 – $546.17
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $12.00B $11.02B
Net income Reported net income $3.95B $-535.60M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $25.64B $22.53B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $18.67B $16.41B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 32.94% -4.86%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4680x 0.4891x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.3738x 1.3732x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 21.18% -3.26%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.00B
Prior annual revenue $11.02B
EBIT $4.66B
Tax rate 14.86%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $3.96B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.90%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $3.96B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $209.80M
Less: capital expenditure -$437.60M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.20B
Current unlevered FCFF $2.54B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.90% $4.32B $228.48M -$476.56M -$1.31B $2.76B $2.68B
2 7.30% $4.63B $245.17M -$444.82M -$1.40B $3.03B $2.77B
3 5.70% $4.90B $259.14M -$399.83M -$1.48B $3.28B $2.81B
4 4.10% $5.10B $269.77M -$343.00M -$1.54B $3.48B $2.81B
5 2.50% $5.23B $276.52M -$276.52M -$1.58B $3.64B $2.77B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.30
Cost of equity 6.39%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.70%
WACC 6.30%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $98.23B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 15.32x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 83.95%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $13.84B
Present value of terminal value $72.36B
Indicated enterprise value $86.20B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $86.20B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.03B
Add: cash and equivalents $6.61B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $90.78B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 258,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $529.59
DCF indicative value per share $351.85
Indicative value vs. market price -33.56%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:53:40.668555 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 23.47% 24.25%
Adjusted R² 0.06 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 26.33% 25.96%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.40 (2.58) 0.44 (2.51)
Size (SMB) 0.37 (1.76) 0.18 (0.79)
Value (HML) -0.14 (-0.80) -0.42 (-1.91)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.18 (-0.98)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.78 (2.41)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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