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ZBRA — Zebra Technologies

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 14.98%
Profit Margins 7.49%
Return on Equity 11.78%
Return on Assets 6.36%
Free Float 0.05B
Short Int % Utilisation 10.09%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 14.3%
Free Cash Flow 0.56B
EBITDA 12.73 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 13.06B
EV/Revenue 2.34
EV/EBITDA 12.73

Revenue growth of 14.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 33.73%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 49.97%
1-Year Price Return* 18.29%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $376.03
52-Week Range $199.05 – $386.23
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $5.40B $4.98B
Net income Reported net income $419.00M $528.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $8.50B $7.97B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.59B $3.59B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 7.77% 10.60%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6347x 0.6251x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3696x 2.2220x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 11.68% 14.72%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $5.40B
Prior annual revenue $4.98B
EBIT $668.00M
Tax rate 25.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $499.66M
Forecast start-growth basis 8.33%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $499.66M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $185.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$86.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $70.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $668.66M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.33% $541.29M $200.41M -$93.17M $75.83M $724.37M $684.30M
2 6.87% $578.50M $214.19M -$128.22M $81.04M $745.51M $628.50M
3 5.42% $609.83M $225.79M -$165.38M $85.43M $755.68M $568.54M
4 3.96% $633.97M $234.73M -$203.32M $88.82M $754.19M $506.37M
5 2.50% $649.82M $240.59M -$240.59M $91.04M $740.85M $443.91M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.58
Cost of equity 13.42%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.27%
WACC 12.05%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $7.95B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.16x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 61.37%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.83B
Present value of terminal value $4.50B
Indicated enterprise value $7.33B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $7.33B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.70B
Add: cash and equivalents $125.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $4.76B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 51,212,395.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $367.93
DCF indicative value per share $92.91
Indicative value vs. market price -74.75%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:55:34.251995 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -42.39% -34.51%
Adjusted R² 0.30 0.33
Annualised residual volatility 35.79% 34.85%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.64 (7.81) 1.95 (8.26)
Size (SMB) 0.77 (2.70) 0.56 (1.86)
Value (HML) 0.34 (1.38) -0.24 (-0.80)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.24 (0.96)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.29 (2.99)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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