Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to HK Equities

HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0390 - China Railway Group Ltd. - H Shares

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse HK Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -7.13%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 30.88%
1-Year Price Return* -11.06%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$3.4
52-Week Range HK$3.25 – HK$5.28
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$1,093.49B HK$1,160.31B
Net income Reported net income HK$22.89B HK$27.89B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$2,470.58B HK$2,256.41B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$371.06B HK$354.71B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 2.09% 2.40%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4426x 0.5142x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 6.6581x 6.3612x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 6.17% 7.86%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: WACC is outside the permitted 5.00%–30.00% model range. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price HK$3.37
Market capitalisation HK$82.67B
Revenue HK$1,093.49B
EBIT HK$46.62B
Reported free cash flow -HK$31.51B
FCF yield -38.12%
Net debt / EBITDA 4.68x

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:22:43.773419 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -39.15% -40.79%
Adjusted R² 0.32 0.32
Annualised residual volatility 26.31% 26.23%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.24 (8.25) 1.29 (7.99)
Size (SMB) 0.82 (3.71) 0.99 (3.57)
Value (HML) 1.41 (6.80) 1.43 (6.18)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.20 (0.67)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.30 (0.90)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

hkexstockequity390