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2. Company Fundamentals
2.3 Management
| Role |
Metric |
| Consensus Rating |
N/A |
2.4 Return
| Metric |
Value |
| Expected Return (Ann.) |
499.37% |
| Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) |
134.77% |
DuPont Model Analysis
The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:
ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.
| DuPont component |
Calculation |
FY2025 |
FY2024 |
| Revenue |
Reported revenue |
HK$30.51B |
HK$24.71B |
| Net income |
Reported net income |
HK$2.55B |
HK$2.11B |
| Total assets |
Year-end reported balance |
HK$20.07B |
HK$16.60B |
| Shareholders’ equity |
Year-end reported balance |
HK$10.53B |
HK$8.96B |
| Net margin |
Net income ÷ revenue |
8.34% |
8.56% |
| Asset turnover |
Revenue ÷ total assets |
1.5206x |
1.4882x |
| Equity multiplier |
Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity |
1.9061x |
1.8535x |
| ROE |
Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier |
24.18% |
23.60% |
Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.
2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation
Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.
Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT
| Reported operating input |
Value |
| Revenue |
HK$30.51B |
| Prior annual revenue |
HK$24.71B |
| EBIT |
HK$2.97B |
| Tax rate |
10.45% |
| NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) |
HK$2.66B |
| Forecast start-growth basis |
15.00% |
| Forecast policy |
latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00% |
Step 2 — Calculate FCFF
| Current FCFF building block |
Value |
| NOPAT |
HK$2.66B |
| Add: depreciation & amortisation |
HK$178.45M |
| Less: capital expenditure |
-HK$365.12M |
| Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement |
-HK$2.48B |
| Current unlevered FCFF |
-HK$2.55M |
Explicit FCFF forecast
| Forecast year |
Revenue growth |
NOPAT |
D&A |
Capex |
Change in NWC |
FCFF |
Present value |
| 1 |
15.00% |
HK$3.06B |
HK$205.21M |
-HK$419.89M |
-HK$2.85B |
-HK$2.93M |
-HK$2.84M |
| 2 |
11.88% |
HK$3.43B |
HK$229.58M |
-HK$409.71M |
-HK$3.19B |
HK$56.77M |
HK$51.52M |
| 3 |
8.75% |
HK$3.73B |
HK$249.67M |
-HK$380.26M |
-HK$3.47B |
HK$127.03M |
HK$108.08M |
| 4 |
5.62% |
HK$3.94B |
HK$263.71M |
-HK$332.68M |
-HK$3.66B |
HK$203.14M |
HK$162.03M |
| 5 |
2.50% |
HK$4.04B |
HK$270.31M |
-HK$270.31M |
-HK$3.76B |
HK$278.91M |
HK$208.54M |
Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)
| WACC input |
Value |
| Risk-free rate |
4.71% |
| Equity risk premium assumption |
5.50% |
| Beta |
0.39 |
| Cost of equity |
6.86% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt |
2.28% |
| WACC |
6.67% |
| WACC validation |
requires assumption review |
Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value
| Terminal-value input |
Value |
| Perpetuity growth rate |
2.50% |
| Terminal value |
HK$6.85B |
| Implied terminal EV / EBITDA |
1.43x |
| Terminal value as % of enterprise value |
90.39% |
Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value
| Enterprise-value component |
Value |
| Present value of explicit FCFF |
HK$527.34M |
| Present value of terminal value |
HK$4.96B |
| Indicated enterprise value |
HK$5.49B |
| Discounting convention |
mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five |
Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value
| Equity bridge |
Value |
| Indicated enterprise value |
HK$5.49B |
| Less: gross interest-bearing debt |
HK$2.92B |
| Add: cash and equivalents |
HK$6.12B |
| Add: affiliate investments |
HK$0.00 |
| Less: minority interests |
HK$184.07M |
| Indicated common equity value |
HK$8.51B |
Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share
| Per-share output |
Value |
| Shares used |
539,520,049.00 |
| Share-count basis |
reported diluted weighted-average shares |
| Current market price |
HK$120.80 |
| DCF indicative value per share |
HK$15.77 |
| Indicative value vs. market price |
-86.95% |
Model Integrity Checks
| Check |
Result |
| Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate |
pass |
| Perpetuity growth is below WACC |
pass |
| WACC is within the configured operating-company range |
review required |
| Terminal-year FCFF is positive |
pass |
| Terminal capex converges to D&A |
pass |
| Terminal-value concentration |
review required |
| Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% |
review required |
2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen
| Educational screen |
Result |
| Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks |
2/4 evidenced checks |
| Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks |
4/4 evidenced checks |
Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:31:53.635143 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.
2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics
Factor-model exception: No verified adjusted-close issuer series is available for factor regression. No Fama–French loading or alpha estimate is published on an incomplete basis.
Factor models are descriptive in-sample exposure diagnostics, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or estimates of future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.