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2. Company Fundamentals
2.3 Management
| Role |
Metric |
| Consensus Rating |
N/A |
2.4 Return
| Metric |
Value |
| Expected Return (Ann.)* |
-52.98% |
| Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* |
31.73% |
| 1-Year Price Return* |
-54.17% |
Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):
| Metric |
Value |
| Last Price |
HK$1.46 |
| 52-Week Range |
HK$1.43 – HK$3.54 |
| Observation Count |
245 trading days |
The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.
DuPont Model Analysis
The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:
ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.
| DuPont component |
Calculation |
FY2025 |
FY2024 |
| Revenue |
Reported revenue |
HK$16.72B |
HK$17.24B |
| Net income |
Reported net income |
HK$-429.00M |
HK$3.20M |
| Total assets |
Year-end reported balance |
HK$51.21B |
HK$48.72B |
| Shareholders’ equity |
Year-end reported balance |
HK$13.47B |
HK$13.92B |
| Net margin |
Net income ÷ revenue |
-2.57% |
0.02% |
| Asset turnover |
Revenue ÷ total assets |
0.3266x |
0.3538x |
| Equity multiplier |
Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity |
3.8019x |
3.4993x |
| ROE |
Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier |
-3.19% |
0.02% |
Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.
2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation
Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.
Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT
| Reported operating input |
Value |
| Revenue |
HK$16.72B |
| Prior annual revenue |
HK$17.24B |
| EBIT |
HK$1.35B |
| Tax rate |
16.50% |
| NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) |
HK$1.13B |
| Forecast start-growth basis |
-3.01% |
| Forecast policy |
latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00% |
Step 2 — Calculate FCFF
| Current FCFF building block |
Value |
| NOPAT |
HK$1.13B |
| Add: depreciation & amortisation |
HK$2.03B |
| Less: capital expenditure |
-HK$2.30B |
| Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement |
-HK$307.40M |
| Current unlevered FCFF |
HK$556.15M |
Explicit FCFF forecast
| Forecast year |
Revenue growth |
NOPAT |
D&A |
Capex |
Change in NWC |
FCFF |
Present value |
| 1 |
-3.01% |
HK$1.09B |
HK$1.97B |
-HK$2.23B |
-HK$298.16M |
HK$539.44M |
HK$524.38M |
| 2 |
-1.63% |
HK$1.08B |
HK$1.94B |
-HK$2.13B |
-HK$293.31M |
HK$593.67M |
HK$545.33M |
| 3 |
-0.25% |
HK$1.07B |
HK$1.94B |
-HK$2.06B |
-HK$292.56M |
HK$655.04M |
HK$568.58M |
| 4 |
1.12% |
HK$1.09B |
HK$1.96B |
-HK$2.02B |
-HK$295.85M |
HK$725.97M |
HK$595.46M |
| 5 |
2.50% |
HK$1.11B |
HK$2.01B |
-HK$2.01B |
-HK$303.25M |
HK$809.27M |
HK$627.25M |
Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)
| WACC input |
Value |
| Risk-free rate |
4.71% |
| Equity risk premium assumption |
5.50% |
| Beta |
0.71 |
| Cost of equity |
8.62% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt |
5.80% |
| WACC |
5.83% |
| WACC validation |
requires assumption review |
Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value
| Terminal-value input |
Value |
| Perpetuity growth rate |
2.50% |
| Terminal value |
HK$24.94B |
| Implied terminal EV / EBITDA |
7.47x |
| Terminal value as % of enterprise value |
86.79% |
Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value
| Enterprise-value component |
Value |
| Present value of explicit FCFF |
HK$2.86B |
| Present value of terminal value |
HK$18.79B |
| Indicated enterprise value |
HK$21.66B |
| Discounting convention |
mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five |
Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value
| Equity bridge |
Value |
| Indicated enterprise value |
HK$21.66B |
| Less: gross interest-bearing debt |
HK$29.93B |
| Add: cash and equivalents |
HK$2.04B |
| Add: affiliate investments |
HK$0.00 |
| Less: minority interests |
HK$323.10M |
| Indicated common equity value |
-HK$6.56B |
Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share
| Per-share output |
Value |
| Shares used |
7,101,805,366.00 |
| Share-count basis |
reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available |
| Current market price |
HK$1.48 |
| DCF indicative value per share |
-HK$0.92 |
| Indicative value vs. market price |
-162.41% |
Model Integrity Checks
| Check |
Result |
| Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate |
pass |
| Perpetuity growth is below WACC |
pass |
| WACC is within the configured operating-company range |
review required |
| Terminal-year FCFF is positive |
pass |
| Terminal capex converges to D&A |
pass |
| Terminal-value concentration |
within review band |
| Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% |
review required |
2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen
| Educational screen |
Result |
| Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks |
3/4 evidenced checks |
| Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks |
3/4 evidenced checks |
Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:39:00.484827 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.
2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics
Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.
| Estimation input |
Value |
| Regional factor set |
Asia Pacific ex Japan |
| Factor-return currency |
USD |
| Issuer-return basis |
USD adjusted total return |
| Estimation window |
2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30 |
| Aligned daily observations |
210 |
| Minimum observation requirement |
120 |
| Currency conversion for HK listings |
HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation |
Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results
| Diagnostic |
FF3 |
FF5 |
| Annualised alpha |
-64.77% |
-64.97% |
| Adjusted R² |
0.11 |
0.10 |
| Annualised residual volatility |
29.12% |
29.03% |
| Factor loading (t-statistic) |
FF3 |
FF5 |
| Market excess return (Mkt-RF) |
0.85 (5.14) |
0.92 (5.11) |
| Size (SMB) |
0.13 (0.53) |
0.27 (0.88) |
| Value (HML) |
0.30 (1.31) |
0.18 (0.72) |
| Profitability (RMW) |
NM |
-0.21 (-0.64) |
| Investment (CMA) |
NM |
0.35 (0.96) |
Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.