Evidence and analysis
Research evidence pack
Source-backed valuation visuals
2. Company Fundamentals
2.3 Management
| Role | Metric |
|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | N/A |
2.4 Return
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected Return (Ann.)* | -66.39% |
| Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* | 43.46% |
| 1-Year Price Return* | -68.30% |
Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Price | HK$4.555 |
| 52-Week Range | HK$4.12 – HK$18.73 |
| Observation Count | 245 trading days |
The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.
DuPont Model Analysis
The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:
ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.
| DuPont component | Calculation | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Reported revenue | HK$164.40B | HK$168.12B |
| Net income | Reported net income | HK$-1.67B | HK$3.21B |
| Total assets | Year-end reported balance | HK$103.72B | HK$110.17B |
| Shareholders’ equity | Year-end reported balance | HK$43.67B | HK$46.83B |
| Net margin | Net income ÷ revenue | -1.02% | 1.91% |
| Asset turnover | Revenue ÷ total assets | 1.5850x | 1.5260x |
| Equity multiplier | Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity | 2.3750x | 2.3526x |
| ROE | Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier | -3.83% | 6.86% |
Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.
2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation
FCFF DCF exception: Reported operating inputs do not support a stable FCFF DCF. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.
| Available valuation input | Value |
|---|---|
| Last market price | HK$4.39 |
| Market capitalisation | HK$10.40B |
| Revenue | HK$164.40B |
| EBIT | -HK$530.55M |
| Reported free cash flow | HK$6.47B |
| FCF yield | 62.16% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 8.39x |
2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen
| Educational screen | Result |
|---|---|
| Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks | not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met |
| Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks | not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met |
Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:39:06.036755 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.
2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics
Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.
| Estimation input | Value |
|---|---|
| Regional factor set | Asia Pacific ex Japan |
| Factor-return currency | USD |
| Issuer-return basis | USD adjusted total return |
| Estimation window | 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30 |
| Aligned daily observations | 210 |
| Minimum observation requirement | 120 |
| Currency conversion for HK listings | HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation |
Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results
| Diagnostic | FF3 | FF5 |
|---|---|---|
| Annualised alpha | -79.17% | -79.66% |
| Adjusted R² | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Annualised residual volatility | 38.98% | 38.91% |
| Factor loading (t-statistic) | FF3 | FF5 |
|---|---|---|
| Market excess return (Mkt-RF) | 0.79 (3.56) | 0.80 (3.32) |
| Size (SMB) | 0.92 (2.81) | 0.98 (2.39) |
| Value (HML) | 1.15 (3.74) | 1.26 (3.68) |
| Profitability (RMW) | NM | 0.37 (0.85) |
| Investment (CMA) | NM | 0.03 (0.06) |