Evidence and analysis
Research evidence pack
Source-backed valuation visuals
1. Industry Fundamentals
1.1 Cyclicality
The company operates in a cyclical industry sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Revenue and earnings tend to correlate with broader economic cycles, with periods of expansion driving growth and contractions creating headwinds. The latest verified market price is shown in the return section below.19 B.
1.2 Competition
The industry is moderately competitive with established players and meaningful barriers to entry. Beta of N/A suggests moderate market sensitivity. Competitive advantages stem from brand, scale, or regulatory moats.
1.3 Technology
Key technology drivers include digital transformation, operational efficiency, automation. Companies that invest in R&D and adopt new technologies tend to gain market share. The pace of technological change creates both opportunities for innovation and risks of disruption.
2. Company Fundamentals
2.3 Management
| Role | Metric |
|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | N/A |
2.4 Return
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected Return (Ann.)* | -19.11% |
| Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* | 37.44% |
| 1-Year Price Return* | -23.81% |
Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Price | HK$0.237 |
| 52-Week Range | HK$0.221 – HK$0.325 |
| Observation Count | 245 trading days |
The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.
DuPont Model Analysis
The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:
ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.
| DuPont component | Calculation | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Reported revenue | HK$26.25B | HK$20.66B |
| Net income | Reported net income | HK$-2.20B | HK$-1.85B |
| Total assets | Year-end reported balance | HK$112.29B | HK$124.74B |
| Shareholders’ equity | Year-end reported balance | HK$5.74B | HK$8.02B |
| Net margin | Net income ÷ revenue | -8.38% | -8.96% |
| Asset turnover | Revenue ÷ total assets | 0.2338x | 0.1656x |
| Equity multiplier | Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity | 19.5751x | 15.5505x |
| ROE | Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier | -38.37% | -23.07% |
Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.
2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation
FCFF DCF exception: WACC is outside the permitted 5.00%–30.00% model range. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.
| Available valuation input | Value |
|---|---|
| Last market price | HK$0.24 |
| Market capitalisation | HK$1.17B |
| Revenue | HK$26.25B |
| EBIT | HK$26.41M |
| Reported free cash flow | -HK$1.07B |
| FCF yield | -91.20% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 62.69x |
2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen
| Educational screen | Result |
|---|---|
| Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks | not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met |
| Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks | not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met |
Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:41:48.449924 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.
2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics
Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.
| Estimation input | Value |
|---|---|
| Regional factor set | Asia Pacific ex Japan |
| Factor-return currency | USD |
| Issuer-return basis | USD adjusted total return |
| Estimation window | 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30 |
| Aligned daily observations | 210 |
| Minimum observation requirement | 120 |
| Currency conversion for HK listings | HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation |
Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results
| Diagnostic | FF3 | FF5 |
|---|---|---|
| Annualised alpha | -35.77% | -32.19% |
| Adjusted R² | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Annualised residual volatility | 36.17% | 35.80% |
| Factor loading (t-statistic) | FF3 | FF5 |
|---|---|---|
| Market excess return (Mkt-RF) | 0.44 (2.15) | 0.42 (1.91) |
| Size (SMB) | 0.22 (0.72) | 0.06 (0.15) |
| Value (HML) | 0.68 (2.36) | 0.44 (1.39) |
| Profitability (RMW) | NM | -0.82 (-2.05) |
| Investment (CMA) | NM | -0.09 (-0.21) |