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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1205 - CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 35.48%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.54%
1-Year Price Return* 20.48%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$0.49
52-Week Range HK$0.37 – HK$0.65
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$14.96B HK$9.50B
Net income Reported net income HK$170.65M HK$572.58M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$14.61B HK$12.67B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$8.79B HK$8.08B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 1.14% 6.03%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0245x 0.7494x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6617x 1.5680x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 1.94% 7.08%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$14.96B
Prior annual revenue HK$9.50B
EBIT HK$357.27M
Tax rate 28.21%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$256.47M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$256.47M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$568.49M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$314.88M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$2.25M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$507.83M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$294.94M HK$653.76M -HK$362.11M -HK$2.59M HK$584.00M HK$569.61M
2 11.88% HK$329.97M HK$731.39M -HK$486.68M -HK$2.90M HK$571.78M HK$530.54M
3 8.75% HK$358.84M HK$795.39M -HK$617.97M -HK$3.15M HK$533.10M HK$470.58M
4 5.62% HK$379.02M HK$840.13M -HK$746.43M -HK$3.33M HK$469.39M HK$394.17M
5 2.50% HK$388.50M HK$861.13M -HK$861.13M -HK$3.41M HK$385.09M HK$307.64M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.52
Cost of equity 7.58%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.25%
WACC 5.12%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$15.08B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.76x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 83.80%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$2.27B
Present value of terminal value HK$11.75B
Indicated enterprise value HK$14.03B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$14.03B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$3.48B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$3.52B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$154.41M
Indicated common equity value HK$13.91B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 7,857,727,149.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$0.50
DCF indicative value per share HK$1.77
Indicative value vs. market price 254.12%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:48:55.172532 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 23.42% 25.36%
Adjusted R² 0.00 0.00
Annualised residual volatility 50.07% 49.78%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.39 (1.38) 0.25 (0.81)
Size (SMB) 0.42 (1.00) 0.09 (0.17)
Value (HML) 0.25 (0.62) 0.50 (1.14)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.44 (0.78)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.82 (-1.30)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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