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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1898 - China Coal Energy Co. Ltd. - H Shares

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 19.97%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 38.53%
1-Year Price Return* 11.11%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$10.98
52-Week Range HK$9.14 – HK$15.24
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$148.06B HK$189.40B
Net income Reported net income HK$14.50B HK$18.12B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$370.52B HK$357.91B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$160.37B HK$151.79B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.79% 9.57%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3996x 0.5292x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3105x 2.3579x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 9.04% 11.94%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$148.06B
Prior annual revenue HK$189.40B
EBIT HK$24.38B
Tax rate 19.78%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$19.56B
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$19.56B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$10.91B
Less: capital expenditure -HK$21.79B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$1.44B
Current unlevered FCFF HK$10.13B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% HK$17.60B HK$9.82B -HK$19.61B HK$1.30B HK$9.12B HK$8.88B
2 -6.88% HK$16.39B HK$9.15B -HK$15.98B HK$1.21B HK$10.77B HK$9.96B
3 -3.75% HK$15.78B HK$8.80B -HK$13.19B HK$1.17B HK$12.56B HK$11.03B
4 -0.63% HK$15.68B HK$8.75B -HK$10.93B HK$1.16B HK$14.66B HK$12.22B
5 2.50% HK$16.07B HK$8.97B -HK$8.97B HK$1.19B HK$17.26B HK$13.66B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.36
Cost of equity 6.70%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.09%
WACC 5.34%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$623.75B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 21.51x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 89.61%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$55.74B
Present value of terminal value HK$480.98B
Indicated enterprise value HK$536.72B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$536.72B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$71.60B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$78.21B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$40.48B
Indicated common equity value HK$502.85B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 4,106,663,000.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$11.28
DCF indicative value per share HK$122.45
Indicative value vs. market price 985.52%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:56:08.673885 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -13.48% -11.99%
Adjusted R² 0.06 0.06
Annualised residual volatility 37.08% 37.03%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.33 (1.56) 0.26 (1.16)
Size (SMB) 0.31 (0.99) 0.14 (0.35)
Value (HML) 1.21 (4.11) 1.27 (3.88)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.03 (0.06)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.36 (-0.77)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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