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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 6049 - Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. - H Shares

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 20.96%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 37.67%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 30.900 HKD
Day Change -0.520 (-1.68%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$17.13B HK$16.34B
Net income Reported net income HK$1.55B HK$1.47B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$18.26B HK$16.78B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$10.55B HK$9.70B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.05% 9.02%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.9381x 0.9738x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.7298x 1.7298x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 14.68% 15.19%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$17.13B
Prior annual revenue HK$16.34B
EBIT HK$2.07B
Tax rate 24.13%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$1.57B
Forecast start-growth basis 4.80%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$1.57B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$379.00M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$48.69M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$81.92M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$1.82B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 4.80% HK$1.65B HK$397.18M -HK$51.03M -HK$85.85M HK$1.91B HK$1.82B
2 4.22% HK$1.72B HK$413.95M -HK$143.37M -HK$89.48M HK$1.90B HK$1.66B
3 3.65% HK$1.78B HK$429.05M -HK$242.09M -HK$92.74M HK$1.87B HK$1.50B
4 3.07% HK$1.83B HK$442.24M -HK$345.88M -HK$95.59M HK$1.83B HK$1.34B
5 2.50% HK$1.88B HK$453.29M -HK$453.29M -HK$97.98M HK$1.78B HK$1.19B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.84
Cost of equity 9.33%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.76%
WACC 9.29%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$26.88B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.18x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 69.63%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$7.52B
Present value of terminal value HK$17.24B
Indicated enterprise value HK$24.76B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$24.76B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$101.65M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$10.81B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$187.34M
Indicated common equity value HK$35.28B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 347,000,090.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$27.10
DCF indicative value per share HK$101.68
Indicative value vs. market price 275.22%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:09:49.340811 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -37.99% -38.24%
Adjusted R² 0.15 0.14
Annualised residual volatility 22.26% 22.25%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.78 (6.13) 0.77 (5.61)
Size (SMB) -0.11 (-0.61) -0.12 (-0.52)
Value (HML) 0.49 (2.79) 0.53 (2.71)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.11 (0.44)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.05 (-0.18)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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