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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 8536 - TL Natural Gas Holdings Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 3.18%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 94.99%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 0.235 HKD
Day Change 0.000 (+0.00%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$86.59M HK$96.28M
Net income Reported net income HK$-7.75M HK$-9.68M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$60.36M HK$62.20M
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$50.59M HK$53.30M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -8.94% -10.05%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.4347x 1.5479x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.1932x 1.1670x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -15.31% -18.16%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: Reported operating inputs do not support a stable FCFF DCF. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price HK$0.24
Market capitalisation HK$51.64M
Revenue HK$86.59M
EBIT -HK$7.57M
Reported free cash flow -HK$3.70M
FCF yield -7.17%
Net debt / EBITDA 6.60x

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:17:05.879977 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -17.48% -15.03%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.01
Annualised residual volatility 57.37% 57.05%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.31 (0.96) 0.14 (0.39)
Size (SMB) -0.86 (-1.80) -1.29 (-2.14)
Value (HML) -0.38 (-0.83) -0.12 (-0.24)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.36 (0.56)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.99 (-1.37)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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