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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 8606 - Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 48.59%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 96.65%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 0.064 HKD
Day Change 0.000 (+0.00%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$393.08M HK$335.35M
Net income Reported net income HK$2.51M HK$-4.70M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$259.61M HK$182.73M
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$77.38M HK$74.98M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 0.64% -1.40%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.5141x 1.8352x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.3549x 2.4371x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 3.24% -6.27%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: WACC is outside the permitted 5.00%–30.00% model range. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price HK$0.05
Market capitalisation HK$72.29M
Revenue HK$393.08M
EBIT HK$3.90M
Reported free cash flow HK$25.11M
FCF yield 34.74%
Net debt / EBITDA -4.78x

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:17:41.313646 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -19.17% -29.67%
Adjusted R² 0.00 0.02
Annualised residual volatility 91.40% 90.18%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.39 (0.75) 0.39 (0.71)
Size (SMB) 1.12 (1.46) 1.42 (1.50)
Value (HML) -0.09 (-0.13) 0.64 (0.80)
Profitability (RMW) NM 2.38 (2.35)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.07 (-0.06)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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