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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 9909 - Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 9.62%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 47.87%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 2.470 HKD
Day Change -0.070 (-2.86%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$2.61B HK$2.62B
Net income Reported net income HK$233.52M HK$216.02M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$5.82B HK$6.04B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$3.45B HK$3.22B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 8.96% 8.25%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4484x 0.4333x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6841x 1.8782x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 6.76% 6.72%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$2.61B
Prior annual revenue HK$2.62B
EBIT HK$358.94M
Tax rate 28.67%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$256.03M
Forecast start-growth basis -0.37%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$256.03M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$77.42M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$5.06M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$60.34M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$268.04M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -0.37% HK$255.08M HK$77.13M -HK$5.04M -HK$60.12M HK$267.05M HK$256.61M
2 0.35% HK$255.97M HK$77.40M -HK$23.15M -HK$60.33M HK$249.89M HK$221.72M
3 1.06% HK$258.69M HK$78.22M -HK$41.67M -HK$60.97M HK$234.28M HK$191.93M
4 1.78% HK$263.30M HK$79.61M -HK$61.01M -HK$62.05M HK$219.85M HK$166.31M
5 2.50% HK$269.89M HK$81.60M -HK$81.60M -HK$63.61M HK$206.28M HK$144.08M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.13
Cost of equity 10.91%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.59%
WACC 8.30%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$3.64B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.92x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 71.38%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$980.65M
Present value of terminal value HK$2.45B
Indicated enterprise value HK$3.43B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$3.43B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$605.82M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$4.48B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$6.90M
Indicated common equity value HK$7.29B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 642,900,000.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$2.08
DCF indicative value per share HK$11.34
Indicative value vs. market price 446.64%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:19:05.934703 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -13.53% -15.67%
Adjusted R² -0.00 -0.01
Annualised residual volatility 38.17% 38.05%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.28 (1.31) 0.38 (1.63)
Size (SMB) 0.19 (0.58) 0.44 (1.10)
Value (HML) 0.28 (0.92) 0.18 (0.54)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.04 (-0.10)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.54 (1.12)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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