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ATO — Atmos Energy

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 39.32%
Profit Margins 27.58%
Return on Equity 9.6%
Return on Assets 3.88%
Free Float 0.17B
Dividend Yield 2.30%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.32%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 0.6%
Free Cash Flow -2.21B
EBITDA 14.86 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 37.76B
EV/Revenue 7.74
EV/EBITDA 14.86

Revenue growth of 0.6% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 6.36%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 15.52%
1-Year Price Return* 5.05%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $169.92
52-Week Range $160.10 – $192.51
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $4.70B $4.17B
Net income Reported net income $1.20B $1.04B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $28.25B $25.19B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $13.56B $12.16B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 25.48% 25.03%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.1665x 0.1653x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.0835x 2.0723x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 8.84% 8.57%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: Reported working-capital, D&A, or capex ratio appears anomalous and requires primary-filing review. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price $171.71
Market capitalisation $29.02B
Revenue $4.70B
EBIT $1.65B
Reported free cash flow -$1.51B
FCF yield -5.21%
Net debt / EBITDA 3.82x

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:23:19.403039 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -2.64% 2.80%
Adjusted R² 0.09 0.11
Annualised residual volatility 14.32% 14.08%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.01 (-0.15) 0.11 (1.13)
Size (SMB) 0.16 (1.40) 0.13 (1.11)
Value (HML) 0.36 (3.72) 0.21 (1.74)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.17 (1.68)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.30 (1.71)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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