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CPAY — Corpay

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 41.4%
Profit Margins 24.6%
Return on Equity 32.12%
Return on Assets 6.19%
Free Float 0.06B
Short Int % Utilisation 4.87%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 25.4%
Free Cash Flow 2.1B
EBITDA 12.19 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 31.09B
EV/Revenue 6.5
EV/EBITDA 12.19

Revenue growth of 25.4% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 41.12%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 37.40%
1-Year Price Return* 31.46%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $417.60
52-Week Range $252.84 – $425.95
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $4.53B $3.97B
Net income Reported net income $1.07B $1.00B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $26.41B $17.96B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.88B $3.12B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 23.62% 25.25%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.1715x 0.2213x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 6.7994x 5.7511x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 27.55% 32.15%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $4.53B
Prior annual revenue $3.97B
EBIT $1.95B
Tax rate 30.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.35B
Forecast start-growth basis 13.93%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.35B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $393.30M
Less: capital expenditure -$200.76M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$162.42M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.38B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 13.93% $1.54B $448.11M -$228.73M -$185.05M $1.57B $1.52B
2 11.08% $1.71B $497.73M -$314.98M -$205.55M $1.69B $1.51B
3 8.22% $1.85B $538.63M -$406.79M -$222.44M $1.76B $1.46B
4 5.36% $1.95B $567.50M -$498.04M -$234.36M $1.79B $1.37B
5 2.50% $2.00B $581.68M -$581.68M -$240.22M $1.76B $1.26B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.87
Cost of equity 9.49%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.49%
WACC 7.76%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $34.26B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.90x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 76.81%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $7.12B
Present value of terminal value $23.57B
Indicated enterprise value $30.69B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $30.69B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $10.00B
Add: cash and equivalents $2.41B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $344.81M
Indicated common equity value $22.75B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 71,058,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $409.60
DCF indicative value per share $320.23
Indicative value vs. market price -21.82%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:28:07.432779 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -24.01% -12.89%
Adjusted R² 0.18 0.20
Annualised residual volatility 34.64% 33.98%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.23 (6.04) 1.53 (6.66)
Size (SMB) 0.26 (0.96) 0.19 (0.65)
Value (HML) 0.81 (3.41) 0.40 (1.38)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.41 (1.69)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.79 (1.88)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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