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GPN — Global Payments

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 12.52%
Profit Margins -7.97%
Return on Equity 2.94%
Return on Assets 2.37%
Free Float 0.23B
Dividend Yield 1.43%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.32%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 63.1%
Free Cash Flow 7.12B
EBITDA 9.11 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 35.7B
EV/Revenue 4.03
EV/EBITDA 9.11

Revenue growth of 63.1% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 17.81%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 40.50%
1-Year Price Return* 8.62%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $93.05
52-Week Range $61.16 – $95.58
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $7.71B $7.74B
Net income Reported net income $1.40B $1.57B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $53.34B $46.89B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $22.89B $22.28B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.17% 20.30%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.1445x 0.1650x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3303x 2.1045x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 6.12% 7.05%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $7.71B
Prior annual revenue $7.74B
EBIT $1.91B
Tax rate 20.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.53B
Forecast start-growth basis -0.39%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.53B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.42B
Less: capital expenditure -$617.77M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$346.66M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.98B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -0.39% $1.52B $1.41B -$615.37M -$345.31M $1.97B $1.91B
2 0.33% $1.53B $1.41B -$816.71M -$346.46M $1.78B $1.63B
3 1.06% $1.54B $1.43B -$1.03B -$350.12M $1.60B $1.38B
4 1.78% $1.57B $1.45B -$1.25B -$356.34M $1.42B $1.16B
5 2.50% $1.61B $1.49B -$1.49B -$365.25M $1.24B $957.41M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.78
Cost of equity 8.97%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.37%
WACC 6.00%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $36.43B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.40x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 79.46%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $7.04B
Present value of terminal value $27.22B
Indicated enterprise value $34.26B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $34.26B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $21.87B
Add: cash and equivalents $8.34B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $890.71M
Indicated common equity value $19.84B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 242,008,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $91.79
DCF indicative value per share $81.99
Indicative value vs. market price -10.68%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:35:37.523522 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -36.30% -23.81%
Adjusted R² 0.20 0.28
Annualised residual volatility 34.83% 32.90%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.21 (5.90) 1.64 (7.34)
Size (SMB) 0.65 (2.35) 0.35 (1.25)
Value (HML) 0.29 (1.21) -0.51 (-1.85)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.33 (1.41)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.81 (4.42)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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