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US Equities · Finance research note

IBM — IBM

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 13.81%
Profit Margins 15.61%
Return on Equity 35.77%
Return on Assets 5.37%
Free Float 0.94B
Dividend Yield 2.62%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.61%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 9.5%
Free Cash Flow 13.08B
EBITDA 18.91 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 314.09B
EV/Revenue 4.56
EV/EBITDA 18.91

Revenue growth of 9.5% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 13.37%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.30%
1-Year Price Return* 0.29%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $234.32
52-Week Range $199.19 – $332.46
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $67.54B $62.75B
Net income Reported net income $10.59B $6.02B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $151.88B $137.18B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $32.65B $27.31B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 15.68% 9.60%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4447x 0.4575x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 4.6520x 5.0234x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 32.45% 22.06%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $67.54B
Prior annual revenue $62.75B
EBIT $12.26B
Tax rate 21.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $9.69B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.62%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $9.69B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $5.02B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.74B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$3.14B
Current unlevered FCFF $9.83B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.62% $10.43B $5.40B -$1.87B -$3.38B $10.58B $10.22B
2 6.34% $11.09B $5.75B -$2.93B -$3.59B $10.31B $9.29B
3 5.06% $11.65B $6.04B -$4.06B -$3.77B $9.85B $8.28B
4 3.78% $12.09B $6.27B -$5.24B -$3.92B $9.20B $7.21B
5 2.50% $12.39B $6.42B -$6.42B -$4.01B $8.38B $6.13B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.70
Cost of equity 8.59%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.15%
WACC 7.20%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $182.54B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.26x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.82%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $41.12B
Present value of terminal value $128.92B
Indicated enterprise value $170.04B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $170.04B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $64.61B
Add: cash and equivalents $14.42B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $93.00M
Indicated common equity value $119.76B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 948,700,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $233.38
DCF indicative value per share $126.23
Indicative value vs. market price -45.91%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:37:22.718696 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 11.00% 16.24%
Adjusted R² 0.10 0.09
Annualised residual volatility 39.82% 39.73%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.91 (3.90) 1.02 (3.80)
Size (SMB) 0.34 (1.07) 0.28 (0.81)
Value (HML) -0.11 (-0.40) -0.29 (-0.88)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.10 (0.36)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.41 (0.82)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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