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US Equities · Finance research note

KEY — KeyCorp

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 35.78%
Profit Margins 27.02%
Return on Equity 9.98%
Return on Assets 1.03%
Free Float 1.08B
Dividend Yield 3.53%
Short Int % Utilisation 0.0%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 11.8%
EBITDA N/A (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 41.7B
EV/Revenue 5.79

Revenue growth of 11.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 38.77%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 23.48%
1-Year Price Return* 34.68%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $23.31
52-Week Range $16.47 – $24.07
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $7.29B $4.40B
Net income Reported net income $1.69B $-304.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $184.38B $187.17B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $20.38B $18.18B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 23.14% -6.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.0395x 0.0235x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 9.0467x 10.2975x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 8.27% -1.67%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: FCFF DCF is not the primary valuation method for financial institutions or REITs. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price $22.83
Market capitalisation $24.47B
Revenue $7.29B
EBIT NM
Reported free cash flow $2.10B
FCF yield 8.59%
Net debt / EBITDA NM

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:39:07.527900 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -10.88% -9.51%
Adjusted R² 0.61 0.61
Annualised residual volatility 14.90% 14.73%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.04 (11.83) 1.05 (10.57)
Size (SMB) 0.71 (5.95) 0.81 (6.39)
Value (HML) 1.09 (10.71) 1.20 (9.61)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.16 (1.56)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.35 (-1.90)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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