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LYV — Live Nation Entertainment

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins -9.93%
Profit Margins 0.33%
Return on Equity 14.93%
Return on Assets 2.18%
Free Float 0.16B
Short Int % Utilisation 13.58%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 12.2%
Free Cash Flow 2.12B
EBITDA 28.16 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 42.06B
EV/Revenue 1.64
EV/EBITDA 28.16

Revenue growth of 12.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 23.04%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.05%
1-Year Price Return* 17.11%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $188.46
52-Week Range $125.34 – $189.25
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $25.20B $23.16B
Net income Reported net income $-54.83M $638.21M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $22.91B $19.64B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $271.01M $173.26M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -0.22% 2.76%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0999x 1.1791x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 84.5459x 113.3466x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -20.23% 368.35%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $25.20B
Prior annual revenue $23.16B
EBIT $1.35B
Tax rate 33.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $902.20M
Forecast start-growth basis 8.83%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $902.20M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $638.87M
Less: capital expenditure -$1.09B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$287.75M
Current unlevered FCFF $162.98M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.83% $981.90M $695.32M -$1.19B -$313.17M $177.38M $169.78M
2 7.25% $1.05B $745.73M -$1.14B -$335.88M $321.99M $282.35M
3 5.67% $1.11B $788.00M -$1.07B -$354.91M $479.45M $385.17M
4 4.08% $1.16B $820.18M -$965.08M -$369.41M $643.93M $473.93M
5 2.50% $1.19B $840.68M -$840.68M -$378.64M $808.55M $545.19M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.12
Cost of equity 10.85%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.38%
WACC 9.15%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $12.46B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 4.77x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 81.24%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.86B
Present value of terminal value $8.04B
Indicated enterprise value $9.90B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $9.90B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $10.40B
Add: cash and equivalents $7.09B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.55B
Indicated common equity value $5.04B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 231,844,300.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $181.21
DCF indicative value per share $21.73
Indicative value vs. market price -88.01%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:41:02.934995 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 5.92% 12.87%
Adjusted R² 0.08 0.09
Annualised residual volatility 30.29% 30.10%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.70 (3.93) 0.85 (4.15)
Size (SMB) -0.00 (-0.00) -0.06 (-0.24)
Value (HML) -0.08 (-0.40) -0.31 (-1.22)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.16 (0.76)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.47 (1.27)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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