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PTC — PTC Inc.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 41.62%
Profit Margins 41.58%
Return on Equity 34.4%
Return on Assets 11.99%
Free Float 0.11B
Short Int % Utilisation 6.67%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 21.7%
Free Cash Flow 0.99B
EBITDA 12.54 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 16.54B
EV/Revenue 5.52
EV/EBITDA 12.54

Revenue growth of 21.7% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 4.32%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 30.24%
Sharpe Ratio (rf=4.5%) -0.01
Beta 0.97

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $2.74B $2.30B
Net income Reported net income $734.00M $376.33M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $6.62B $6.38B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.83B $3.21B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 26.80% 16.37%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4140x 0.3601x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.7294x 1.9859x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 19.18% 11.71%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $2.74B
Prior annual revenue $2.30B
EBIT $997.20M
Tax rate 20.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $797.76M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $797.76M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $135.42M
Less: capital expenditure -$11.01M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$188.12M
Current unlevered FCFF $734.04M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $917.42M $155.73M -$12.66M -$216.34M $844.15M $806.17M
2 11.88% $1.03B $174.22M -$54.18M -$242.03M $904.38M $787.72M
3 8.75% $1.12B $189.47M -$102.43M -$263.21M $939.99M $746.72M
4 5.62% $1.18B $200.12M -$154.16M -$278.02M $946.90M $686.05M
5 2.50% $1.21B $205.13M -$205.13M -$284.97M $923.46M $610.21M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.99
Cost of equity 10.15%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.67%
WACC 9.64%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $13.25B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.72x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 69.69%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.64B
Present value of terminal value $8.36B
Indicated enterprise value $12.00B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $12.00B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $1.37B
Add: cash and equivalents $184.41M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $10.81B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 120,777,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $148.76
DCF indicative value per share $89.52
Indicative value vs. market price -39.82%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:46:51.937612 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -49.07% -44.00%
Adjusted R² 0.07 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 29.55% 29.26%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.23 (1.31) 0.43 (2.15)
Size (SMB) 0.54 (2.30) 0.58 (2.31)
Value (HML) -0.55 (-2.72) -0.71 (-2.87)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.38 (1.82)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.19 (0.53)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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