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US Equities · Finance research note

SW — Smurfit Westrock

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.79%
Profit Margins 1.22%
Return on Equity 2.11%
Return on Assets 3.01%
Free Float 0.52B
Dividend Yield 3.85%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.95%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 0.7%
Free Cash Flow 1.36B
EBITDA 7.13 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 34.01B
EV/Revenue 1.09
EV/EBITDA 7.13

Revenue growth of 0.7% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 31.03%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 44.21%
1-Year Price Return* 18.79%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $49.25
52-Week Range $32.73 – $52.65
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $31.18B $21.11B
Net income Reported net income $699.00M $319.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $45.16B $43.76B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $18.33B $17.36B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 2.24% 1.51%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6905x 0.4824x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.4640x 2.5207x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 3.81% 1.84%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $31.18B
Prior annual revenue $21.11B
EBIT $1.80B
Tax rate 27.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.31B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.31B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.55B
Less: capital expenditure -$2.19B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $71.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.74B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $1.51B $2.93B -$2.52B $81.65M $2.00B $1.93B
2 11.88% $1.69B $3.28B -$2.94B $91.35M $2.12B $1.89B
3 8.75% $1.83B $3.57B -$3.32B $99.34M $2.18B $1.81B
4 5.62% $1.94B $3.77B -$3.64B $104.93M $2.18B $1.67B
5 2.50% $1.99B $3.86B -$3.86B $107.55M $2.09B $1.49B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.93
Cost of equity 9.83%
Pre-tax cost of debt 6.14%
WACC 7.92%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $39.61B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.01x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.50%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $8.78B
Present value of terminal value $27.06B
Indicated enterprise value $35.83B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $35.83B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $13.77B
Add: cash and equivalents $892.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $27.00M
Indicated common equity value $22.93B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 522,310,486.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $47.42
DCF indicative value per share $43.90
Indicative value vs. market price -7.44%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:49:38.996043 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -27.98% -12.29%
Adjusted R² 0.30 0.39
Annualised residual volatility 36.00% 33.41%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.60 (7.58) 2.08 (9.20)
Size (SMB) 0.78 (2.72) 0.41 (1.41)
Value (HML) 0.92 (3.75) -0.03 (-0.09)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.32 (1.32)
Investment (CMA) NM 2.18 (5.25)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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