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US Equities · Finance research note

TAP — Molson Coors Beverage Company

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 12.42%
Profit Margins -18.85%
Return on Equity -18.08%
Return on Assets 4.49%
Free Float 0.17B
Dividend Yield 4.74%
Short Int % Utilisation 23.04%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 2.0%
Free Cash Flow 0.77B
EBITDA 5.72 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 14.0B
EV/Revenue 1.25
EV/EBITDA 5.72

Revenue growth of 2.0% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -10.05%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 28.02%
1-Year Price Return* -13.26%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $42.77
52-Week Range $38.04 – $54.82
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $11.14B $11.63B
Net income Reported net income $-2.14B $1.12B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $22.74B $26.06B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $10.23B $13.09B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -19.21% 9.65%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4900x 0.4461x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.2227x 1.9908x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -20.91% 8.57%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

FCFF DCF exception: Reported operating inputs do not support a stable FCFF DCF. This post deliberately does not publish a mechanical enterprise value or implied per-share value on an unsuitable basis.

Available valuation input Value
Last market price $41.48
Market capitalisation $7.73B
Revenue $11.14B
EBIT -$2.27B
Reported free cash flow $1.07B
FCF yield 13.81%
Net debt / EBITDA -3.53x

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks not rated — FCFF DCF suitability or data-integrity condition not met

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:50:07.240876 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Financial institutions and REITs require sector-specific methods rather than a mechanical FCFF DCF. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -32.50% -22.20%
Adjusted R² 0.14 0.20
Annualised residual volatility 25.17% 24.20%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.20 (-1.36) 0.11 (0.70)
Size (SMB) 0.83 (4.17) 0.76 (3.64)
Value (HML) 0.44 (2.58) 0.02 (0.09)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.43 (2.48)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.82 (2.72)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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