Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to HK Equities

HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0077 - AMS Public Transport Holdings Ltd.

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse HK Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 39.12%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.07%
1-Year Price Return* 29.74%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$0.555
52-Week Range HK$0.405 – HK$0.7
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue HK$436.14M HK$415.03M
Net income Reported net income HK$17.97M HK$8.40M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$224.17M HK$283.36M
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$43.83M HK$36.69M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.12% 2.02%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.9456x 1.4647x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 5.1143x 7.7240x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 41.00% 22.89%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$436.14M
Prior annual revenue HK$415.03M
EBIT HK$30.13M
Tax rate 16.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$25.28M
Forecast start-growth basis 5.09%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$25.28M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$70.92M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$3.29M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$17.69M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$110.60M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 5.09% HK$26.56M HK$74.53M -HK$3.45M HK$18.59M HK$116.22M HK$113.35M
2 4.44% HK$27.74M HK$77.84M -HK$22.16M HK$19.41M HK$102.83M HK$95.38M
3 3.79% HK$28.79M HK$80.79M -HK$42.27M HK$20.15M HK$87.47M HK$77.16M
4 3.15% HK$29.70M HK$83.33M -HK$63.46M HK$20.78M HK$70.35M HK$59.03M
5 2.50% HK$30.44M HK$85.41M -HK$85.41M HK$21.30M HK$51.75M HK$41.29M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.38
Cost of equity 6.79%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.56%
WACC 5.14%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$2.01B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 16.49x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.18%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$386.20M
Present value of terminal value HK$1.56B
Indicated enterprise value HK$1.95B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$1.95B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$115.39M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$92.58M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value HK$1.93B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 271,913,000.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$0.56
DCF indicative value per share HK$7.08
Indicative value vs. market price 1,175.97%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:08:04.300894 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-03-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 13.45% 8.74%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.04
Annualised residual volatility 33.96% 33.26%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.19 (0.96) 0.40 (1.94)
Size (SMB) -0.09 (-0.31) 0.44 (1.25)
Value (HML) -0.41 (-1.51) -0.68 (-2.30)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.30 (-0.81)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.18 (2.80)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

hkexstockequity77