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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0117 - Tianli Holdings Group Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 2490.46%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 203.98%
1-Year Price Return* 406.35%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$3.68
52-Week Range HK$0.28 – HK$8.39
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$678.99M HK$548.00M
Net income Reported net income HK$133.45M HK$-153.37M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$2.41B HK$2.21B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$644.49M HK$517.60M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 19.65% -27.99%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.2813x 0.2475x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.7448x 4.2771x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 20.71% -29.63%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$678.99M
Prior annual revenue HK$548.00M
EBIT HK$194.78M
Tax rate 16.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$162.64M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$162.64M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$84.43M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$161.57M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$103.23M
Current unlevered FCFF -HK$17.73M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$187.04M HK$97.10M -HK$185.81M -HK$118.72M -HK$20.39M -HK$18.98M
2 11.88% HK$209.25M HK$108.63M -HK$183.06M -HK$132.81M HK$2.00M HK$1.61M
3 8.75% HK$227.56M HK$118.13M -HK$172.10M -HK$144.43M HK$29.16M HK$20.34M
4 5.62% HK$240.36M HK$124.78M -HK$153.28M -HK$152.56M HK$59.30M HK$35.81M
5 2.50% HK$246.37M HK$127.89M -HK$127.89M -HK$156.37M HK$90.00M HK$47.05M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 3.03
Cost of equity 21.38%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.94%
WACC 15.50%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$709.55M
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 1.68x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.09%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$85.83M
Present value of terminal value HK$345.20M
Indicated enterprise value HK$431.03M
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$431.03M
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$1.34B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$259.10M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value -HK$650.04M

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 744,750,000.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$3.48
DCF indicative value per share -HK$0.87
Indicative value vs. market price -125.08%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 0/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 1/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:10:19.285194 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 7,350.30% 6,990.94%
Adjusted R² -0.01 -0.02
Annualised residual volatility 211.94% 211.76%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.71 (-0.59) -0.80 (-0.61)
Size (SMB) -0.03 (-0.02) -0.10 (-0.05)
Value (HML) -0.19 (-0.11) 0.28 (0.15)
Profitability (RMW) NM 1.29 (0.54)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.53 (-0.20)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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