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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0194 - Liu Chong Hing Investment Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -0.82%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 15.01%
1-Year Price Return* -1.87%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-11, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$4.32
52-Week Range HK$4.2 – HK$5.28
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$1.05B HK$933.03M
Net income Reported net income HK$12.05M HK$-837.06M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$14.37B HK$14.89B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$10.57B HK$10.51B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 1.14% -89.71%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.0733x 0.0627x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.3600x 1.4174x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 0.11% -7.97%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$1.05B
Prior annual revenue HK$933.03M
EBIT HK$115.06M
Tax rate 16.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$96.07M
Forecast start-growth basis 12.88%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$96.07M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$55.44M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$12.31M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$296.12M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$435.33M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 12.88% HK$108.44M HK$62.58M -HK$13.89M HK$334.26M HK$491.39M HK$477.70M
2 10.28% HK$119.59M HK$69.01M -HK$28.74M HK$368.63M HK$528.49M HK$485.56M
3 7.69% HK$128.79M HK$74.32M -HK$45.41M HK$396.97M HK$554.67M HK$481.63M
4 5.09% HK$135.35M HK$78.11M -HK$62.91M HK$417.19M HK$567.74M HK$465.91M
5 2.50% HK$138.73M HK$80.06M -HK$80.06M HK$427.62M HK$566.36M HK$439.25M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.00
Cost of equity 10.21%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.07%
WACC 5.81%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$17.54B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 71.23x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 84.91%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$2.35B
Present value of terminal value HK$13.22B
Indicated enterprise value HK$15.57B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$15.57B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$2.98B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$2.16B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$26.15M
Indicated common equity value HK$14.73B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 378,583,440.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$4.32
DCF indicative value per share HK$38.90
Indicative value vs. market price 800.49%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:13:59.981791 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -8.13% -8.52%
Adjusted R² 0.02 0.01
Annualised residual volatility 15.34% 15.34%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.20 (2.33) 0.22 (2.32)
Size (SMB) 0.10 (0.78) 0.14 (0.86)
Value (HML) 0.14 (1.11) 0.12 (0.90)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.00 (-0.00)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.08 (0.43)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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