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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0340 - Tongguan Gold Group Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 73.38%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 68.27%
1-Year Price Return* 36.68%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$2.715
52-Week Range HK$1.66 – HK$4.14
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$2.40B HK$1.60B
Net income Reported net income HK$830.43M HK$211.14M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$6.53B HK$4.59B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$3.99B HK$2.48B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 34.66% 13.16%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3670x 0.3494x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6367x 1.8517x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 20.82% 8.51%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$2.40B
Prior annual revenue HK$1.60B
EBIT HK$1.08B
Tax rate 18.19%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$884.00M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$884.00M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$134.33M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$467.81M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$188.09M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$362.43M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$1.02B HK$154.47M -HK$537.98M -HK$216.30M HK$416.79M HK$398.28M
2 11.88% HK$1.14B HK$172.82M -HK$494.61M -HK$241.99M HK$573.55M HK$500.47M
3 8.75% HK$1.24B HK$187.94M -HK$421.24M -HK$263.16M HK$740.38M HK$589.93M
4 5.62% HK$1.31B HK$198.51M -HK$321.72M -HK$277.96M HK$905.24M HK$658.64M
5 2.50% HK$1.34B HK$203.47M -HK$203.47M -HK$284.91M HK$1.05B HK$700.37M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.90
Cost of equity 9.65%
Pre-tax cost of debt 6.72%
WACC 9.51%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$15.41B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.37x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 77.45%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$2.85B
Present value of terminal value HK$9.78B
Indicated enterprise value HK$12.63B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$12.63B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$514.51M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$638.49M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$184.39M
Indicated common equity value HK$12.57B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 4,438,645,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$2.88
DCF indicative value per share HK$2.83
Indicative value vs. market price -1.49%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:21:04.012594 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -22.46% -23.76%
Adjusted R² 0.34 0.34
Annualised residual volatility 55.06% 55.04%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.75 (8.76) 2.76 (8.13)
Size (SMB) 2.30 (5.00) 2.37 (4.08)
Value (HML) 1.54 (3.55) 1.60 (3.30)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.23 (0.37)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.07 (0.09)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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