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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0377 - China Huajun Group Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 506.08%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 147.23%
1-Year Price Return* 152.54%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$2.57
52-Week Range HK$0.81 – HK$5.63
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$1.36B HK$1.15B
Net income Reported net income HK$-234.10M HK$-1.26B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$3.07B HK$4.83B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$-7.81B HK$-7.62B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -17.17% -109.39%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4448x 0.2389x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -0.3923x -0.6343x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 3.00% 16.58%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$1.36B
Prior annual revenue HK$1.15B
EBIT HK$482.40M
Tax rate 25.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$361.80M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$361.80M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$60.04M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$3.04M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$122.56M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$541.36M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$416.07M HK$69.05M -HK$3.50M HK$140.94M HK$622.56M HK$592.63M
2 11.88% HK$465.48M HK$77.25M -HK$22.25M HK$157.68M HK$678.15M HK$584.96M
3 8.75% HK$506.21M HK$84.01M -HK$44.13M HK$171.47M HK$717.56M HK$560.86M
4 5.62% HK$534.68M HK$88.73M -HK$67.67M HK$181.12M HK$736.86M HK$521.90M
5 2.50% HK$548.05M HK$90.95M -HK$90.95M HK$185.65M HK$733.70M HK$470.89M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta -1.66
Cost of equity -4.41%
Pre-tax cost of debt 16.15%
WACC 10.36%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$9.57B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.65x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 68.16%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$2.73B
Present value of terminal value HK$5.85B
Indicated enterprise value HK$8.58B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$8.58B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$3.53B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$35.00M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$111.51M
Indicated common equity value HK$4.97B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 93,491,851.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$4.49
DCF indicative value per share HK$53.17
Indicative value vs. market price 1,085.41%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 1/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 1/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:22:16.121550 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -0.05% -4.67%
Adjusted R² -0.01 -0.02
Annualised residual volatility 78.68% 78.60%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.17 (-0.37) -0.07 (-0.14)
Size (SMB) 0.41 (0.62) 0.71 (0.86)
Value (HML) 0.56 (0.90) 0.58 (0.84)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.34 (0.38)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.53 (0.53)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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