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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0517 - COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 16.41%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 28.55%
1-Year Price Return* 11.42%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$5.84
52-Week Range HK$5.22 – HK$7.92
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$3.71B HK$3.63B
Net income Reported net income HK$771.06M HK$709.21M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$9.51B HK$9.33B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$7.94B HK$7.87B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 20.81% 19.55%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3898x 0.3886x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.1969x 1.1856x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 9.71% 9.01%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$3.71B
Prior annual revenue HK$3.63B
EBIT HK$873.88M
Tax rate 9.41%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$791.66M
Forecast start-growth basis 2.17%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$791.66M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$38.40M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$20.04M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$36.52M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$846.54M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.17% HK$808.82M HK$39.23M -HK$20.47M HK$37.31M HK$864.89M HK$831.45M
2 2.25% HK$827.02M HK$40.11M -HK$25.73M HK$38.15M HK$879.55M HK$781.43M
3 2.33% HK$846.32M HK$41.05M -HK$31.23M HK$39.04M HK$895.17M HK$734.99M
4 2.42% HK$866.77M HK$42.04M -HK$37.02M HK$39.98M HK$911.78M HK$691.86M
5 2.50% HK$888.44M HK$43.09M -HK$43.09M HK$40.98M HK$929.42M HK$651.76M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.64
Cost of equity 8.21%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.13%
WACC 8.21%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$16.70B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 16.31x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.30%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$3.69B
Present value of terminal value HK$11.26B
Indicated enterprise value HK$14.95B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$14.95B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$12.52M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$4.79B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$327.03M
Indicated common equity value HK$19.40B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,465,971,429.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$5.99
DCF indicative value per share HK$13.23
Indicative value vs. market price 121.06%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:25:30.510201 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -15.55% -21.11%
Adjusted R² 0.27 0.29
Annualised residual volatility 25.03% 24.44%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.13 (7.93) 1.30 (8.60)
Size (SMB) 0.45 (2.13) 0.93 (3.61)
Value (HML) 1.07 (5.42) 1.05 (4.86)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.36 (1.32)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.90 (2.91)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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