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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 0989 - China Changbaishan International Holdings Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 33.63%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 112.82%
1-Year Price Return* -27.27%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-13, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$0.56
52-Week Range HK$0.385 – HK$0.98
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue HK$52.69M HK$173.10M
Net income Reported net income HK$122.25M HK$-852.91M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$417.97M HK$1.25B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$-489.49M HK$-623.30M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 232.03% -492.71%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.1261x 0.1382x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -0.8539x -2.0092x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -24.97% 136.84%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$52.69M
Prior annual revenue HK$173.10M
EBIT HK$181.54M
Tax rate 7.44%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$168.03M
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$168.03M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$5.58M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$2.87M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$8.17M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$178.91M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% HK$151.23M HK$5.02M -HK$2.58M HK$7.35M HK$161.02M HK$155.91M
2 -6.88% HK$140.83M HK$4.67M -HK$2.97M HK$6.85M HK$149.38M HK$135.62M
3 -3.75% HK$135.55M HK$4.50M -HK$3.41M HK$6.59M HK$143.23M HK$121.92M
4 -0.63% HK$134.70M HK$4.47M -HK$3.93M HK$6.55M HK$141.80M HK$113.16M
5 2.50% HK$138.07M HK$4.58M -HK$4.58M HK$6.71M HK$144.78M HK$108.34M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.01
Cost of equity 10.27%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.88%
WACC 6.66%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$3.57B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 23.22x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.29%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$634.95M
Present value of terminal value HK$2.59B
Indicated enterprise value HK$3.22B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$3.22B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$643.29M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$4.15M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value HK$2.58B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 360,182,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$0.60
DCF indicative value per share HK$7.17
Indicative value vs. market price 1,095.07%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 1/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 1/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:42:14.471034 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-03-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 125.08% 143.15%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.01
Annualised residual volatility 104.97% 104.57%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.21 (-0.35) -0.51 (-0.79)
Size (SMB) -1.07 (-1.21) -1.85 (-1.67)
Value (HML) -1.63 (-1.96) -1.34 (-1.45)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.13 (0.11)
Investment (CMA) NM -1.66 (-1.25)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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