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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1038 - CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 24.78%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 20.30%
1-Year Price Return* 21.47%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$64.15
52-Week Range HK$50.2 – HK$67.9
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$4.42B HK$4.99B
Net income Reported net income HK$8.27B HK$8.12B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$166.26B HK$157.84B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$137.79B HK$131.16B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 187.08% 162.53%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.0266x 0.0316x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.2066x 1.2033x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 6.00% 6.19%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$4.42B
Prior annual revenue HK$4.99B
EBIT HK$9.69B
Tax rate 1.87%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$9.51B
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$9.51B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$395.00M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$336.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$336.00M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$9.91B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% HK$8.56B HK$355.50M -HK$302.40M HK$302.40M HK$8.91B HK$8.57B
2 -6.88% HK$7.97B HK$331.06M -HK$293.97M HK$281.61M HK$8.29B HK$7.37B
3 -3.75% HK$7.67B HK$318.64M -HK$294.85M HK$271.05M HK$7.97B HK$6.55B
4 -0.63% HK$7.62B HK$316.65M -HK$304.83M HK$269.36M HK$7.91B HK$6.02B
5 2.50% HK$7.81B HK$324.57M -HK$324.57M HK$276.09M HK$8.09B HK$5.69B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.71
Cost of equity 8.63%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.22%
WACC 8.12%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$147.57B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 17.81x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 74.49%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$34.21B
Present value of terminal value HK$99.88B
Indicated enterprise value HK$134.09B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$134.09B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$20.88B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$7.35B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$57.00M
Indicated common equity value HK$120.50B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 2,519,610,945.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$64.55
DCF indicative value per share HK$47.82
Indicative value vs. market price -25.91%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:43:46.521813 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 10.50% 12.21%
Adjusted R² 0.13 0.18
Annualised residual volatility 19.02% 18.35%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.59 (5.44) 0.67 (5.94)
Size (SMB) -0.20 (-1.24) -0.06 (-0.32)
Value (HML) 0.48 (3.20) 0.21 (1.28)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.66 (-3.22)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.48 (2.05)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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