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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1126 - Dream International Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -48.02%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 52.16%
1-Year Price Return* -53.49%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$5.91
52-Week Range HK$5.91 – HK$19.62
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$5.97B HK$5.45B
Net income Reported net income HK$692.90M HK$738.50M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$5.55B HK$4.96B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$4.20B HK$3.96B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 11.60% 13.55%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0774x 1.0989x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.3194x 1.2521x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 16.49% 18.64%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$5.97B
Prior annual revenue HK$5.45B
EBIT HK$877.44M
Tax rate 20.47%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$697.84M
Forecast start-growth basis 9.62%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$697.84M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$175.78M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$207.91M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$35.18M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$700.89M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.62% HK$764.98M HK$192.69M -HK$227.91M HK$38.57M HK$768.33M HK$742.61M
2 7.84% HK$824.97M HK$207.80M -HK$236.29M HK$41.59M HK$838.07M HK$756.70M
3 6.06% HK$874.96M HK$220.39M -HK$240.54M HK$44.11M HK$898.93M HK$758.23M
4 4.28% HK$912.42M HK$229.83M -HK$240.33M HK$46.00M HK$947.91M HK$746.91M
5 2.50% HK$935.23M HK$235.57M -HK$235.57M HK$47.15M HK$982.38M HK$723.12M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.44
Cost of equity 7.14%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.69%
WACC 7.05%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$22.15B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 15.69x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.87%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$3.73B
Present value of terminal value HK$15.76B
Indicated enterprise value HK$19.49B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$19.49B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$121.45M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$1.80B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value HK$21.16B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 676,865,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$6.01
DCF indicative value per share HK$31.27
Indicative value vs. market price 420.22%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:46:16.079368 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -64.06% -68.36%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 49.70% 48.62%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.87 (3.05) 1.19 (3.95)
Size (SMB) 0.76 (1.84) 1.70 (3.31)
Value (HML) 0.34 (0.87) 0.26 (0.62)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.61 (1.12)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.75 (2.85)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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