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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1298 - Yunnan Energy International Co. Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 6.84%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 37.37%
1-Year Price Return* 0.00%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-13, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$1.1
52-Week Range HK$0.82 – HK$1.2
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$392.67M HK$576.62M
Net income Reported net income HK$-898K HK$491K
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$450.44M HK$414.72M
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$168.39M HK$164.12M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -0.23% 0.09%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8718x 1.3904x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.6750x 2.5270x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -0.53% 0.30%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$392.67M
Prior annual revenue HK$576.62M
EBIT HK$6.20M
Tax rate 25.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$4.65M
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$4.65M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$55,000.00
Less: capital expenditure -HK$18,000.00
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$11.56M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$16.25M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% HK$4.18M HK$49,500.00 -HK$16,200.00 HK$10.40M HK$14.62M HK$14.19M
2 -6.88% HK$3.90M HK$46,096.88 -HK$22,838.91 HK$9.69M HK$13.61M HK$12.44M
3 -3.75% HK$3.75M HK$44,368.24 -HK$29,444.38 HK$9.33M HK$13.09M HK$11.27M
4 -0.63% HK$3.73M HK$44,090.94 -HK$36,675.65 HK$9.27M HK$13.00M HK$10.54M
5 2.50% HK$3.82M HK$45,193.21 -HK$45,193.21 HK$9.50M HK$13.32M HK$10.17M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.64
Cost of equity 8.24%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.40%
WACC 6.17%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$372.07M
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 72.40x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.47%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$58.62M
Present value of terminal value HK$275.82M
Indicated enterprise value HK$334.44M
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$334.44M
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$144.02M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$57.56M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value HK$247.98M

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 275,437,000.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$1.10
DCF indicative value per share HK$0.90
Indicative value vs. market price -18.15%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:52:30.840565 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -3.76% -4.40%
Adjusted R² -0.01 -0.02
Annualised residual volatility 32.37% 32.36%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.13 (-0.70) -0.12 (-0.59)
Size (SMB) -0.10 (-0.36) -0.06 (-0.18)
Value (HML) -0.30 (-1.19) -0.29 (-1.03)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.06 (0.16)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.06 (0.15)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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