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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1338 - BaWang International (Group) Holding Ltd.

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -34.21%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 60.08%
1-Year Price Return* -44.00%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$0.028
52-Week Range HK$0.025 – HK$0.053
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$273.09M HK$252.95M
Net income Reported net income HK$3.88M HK$6.55M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$226.44M HK$235.43M
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$149.50M HK$145.47M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 1.42% 2.59%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.2060x 1.0744x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.5146x 1.6185x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 2.60% 4.51%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$273.09M
Prior annual revenue HK$252.95M
EBIT HK$4.46M
Tax rate 3.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$4.32M
Forecast start-growth basis 7.96%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$4.32M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$15.15M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$17.36M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$176,000.00
Current unlevered FCFF HK$2.29M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.96% HK$4.67M HK$16.36M -HK$18.74M HK$190,014.48 HK$2.47M HK$2.40M
2 6.60% HK$4.98M HK$17.44M -HK$19.34M HK$202,549.90 HK$3.27M HK$3.00M
3 5.23% HK$5.24M HK$18.35M -HK$19.69M HK$213,146.07 HK$4.11M HK$3.55M
4 3.87% HK$5.44M HK$19.06M -HK$19.76M HK$221,385.64 HK$4.97M HK$4.04M
5 2.50% HK$5.57M HK$19.54M -HK$19.54M HK$226,920.28 HK$5.80M HK$4.46M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.26
Cost of equity 6.12%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.45%
WACC 6.04%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$167.90M
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.64x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 87.77%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$17.45M
Present value of terminal value HK$125.22M
Indicated enterprise value HK$142.67M
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$142.67M
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$4.42M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$115.55M
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$0.00
Indicated common equity value HK$253.80M

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 3,162,441,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$0.03
DCF indicative value per share HK$0.08
Indicative value vs. market price 167.52%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:52:56.462812 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -38.77% -36.86%
Adjusted R² -0.01 -0.01
Annualised residual volatility 59.67% 59.52%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.13 (0.39) 0.16 (0.44)
Size (SMB) 0.58 (1.17) 0.58 (0.92)
Value (HML) 0.05 (0.10) -0.18 (-0.35)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.67 (-1.00)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.18 (0.24)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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